Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: Africa is witnessing a new era of political activism and change as the wave of protests has swept across the continent this year. What makes these protests different is that it is not being fueled by the opposition leaders but rather by the discontented youth. 

Africa is witnessing a new era of political activism and change as the wave of protests has swept across the continent this year. Besides Kenya, Uganda, and Togo, Nigeria is the latest country to witness mass demonstrations[i]. According to the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, “A growing debt crisis across the continent and the rising cost of living has resulted in civil unrest in several countries in recent months.”[ii] The protests that have occurred this year in Kenya and Nigeria are somewhat different from the wave of unrest which took place in 2018 and 2020, given that earlier these protests were fueled by the political opposition, however this time it has been mobilized by discontented youth. It may be noted that initially, these protests were centered on specific issues such as heavy taxation and the rising cost of living which later transitioned into increasing calls for systemic overhaul. Kenya and Nigeria are undergoing the worst economic crisis, marked by heavy debt, rising inflation, rising food prices and stagnant wages. According to experts, the demand for the systemic change by the youth stems from the growing mistrust for the political system given that both the leaders William Ruto and Bola S Tinubu failed to deliver what they promised in their electoral campaigns[iii]. In this context this paper examines, the factors that triggered protests in Kenya and analyzes its implications for countries like Nigeria which witnessed similar protests. 

What Triggered Protests in Kenya 

On June 25, 2024, violent protests broke out in Kenya when law-makers passed the controversial financial bill that resulted in the killing of more than 50 Kenyan citizens and the arrests of another 628 protestors[iv]. Kenya has been struggling to repay its heavy debt, as its foreign debt reached up to 80 billion dollars in 2024, which accounts for almost three- fourth of Kenya’s GDP [v]. Kenya, which is one of the fastest growing economies on the continent has borrowed a huge debt from the World Bank, the IMF and other lenders like China to finance its infrastructural projects. However, with the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, Kenya’s growth stalled while the state expenditure rocketed. Besides, the Ukraine crisis further resulted in the rise of food and energy prices.  In 2022 when President Ruto came to power, he pledged to address the debt crisis in Kenya. However, Ruto administration spend more than half of its revenue servicing the debt. In early 2024 the government of Kenya reached an agreement with the IMF to secure 941 million dollars in additional lending[vi].  As part of the agreement, Ruto administration agreed for undertaking economic reforms, including a taxation hike to stabilize Kenya’s debt-battered economic situation. With an objective of collecting 2.7 billion dollars through taxation to ward off heavy debt, the Ruto administration introduced the controversial financial bill in May 2024.[vii] The bill imposed a 16 % Value-Added Tax on bread, increased the excise duty on cooking oil, a 5% taxation on digital monetary transactions, eco levy on plastic goods, a 2.5% annual tax on motor vehicles and 16 % taxes on goods and services for specialized hospitals[viii]. The Ruto administration initially decided to withdraw few of the tax provisions from the financial bill, however, the Kenyan citizens were not satisfied with this decision and the young Kenyans took to the streets on June 25, 2024.[ix] The Kenyan citizens claimed that the bill entails increasing cost of living given that the rate of unemployment in Kenya has risen up to 12% in 2024 with the youth accounting for 68% of those unemployed[x]. To avoid this confrontation, the Ruto administration decided on June 26, 2024, that it will not move ahead with the financial bill. Later, when the Ruto administration totally withdrew the controversial financial bill, the protests continued and expanded in terms of its intensity, as the Kenyan citizens claimed that the government failed to address the deep-seated economic and social issues. 

Challenges for President Ruto 

On July 10, 2024, under the mounting pressure from angry Kenyan protestors, President Ruto dismissed most of his Cabinet Ministers including Kenya’s Attorney General. President Ruto’s cabinet which has been in place for the last two years was accused of being incompetent and arrogant.[xi] The protests reflected the deep-rooted public discontentment over the financial mismanagement of the Ruto administration, which had been growing for months. When President Ruto assumed power in 2022, he called for establishing economic equality between Kenya’s working poor and the political class. His electoral campaign, with its focus on bottom-up approach marked a departure from politics of ethno-nationalism to class politics and this changed the character of Kenya’s polity to a greater extent.[xii] President Ruto pledged to fix the Kenyan economy which was affected by rising inflation, increasing debt burden and high rate of unemployment and promised to entrench good governance practices in place. Right after coming to power, Ruto administration identified the key issues that required immediate attention, such as decoupling police finances from executive or taking coastal operations back to the coastal city of Mombasa, however, addressing Kenya’s financial crisis proved to be a daunting task. This was followed by the devaluation of the Kenyan currency, Shilling and a steep rise in the petroleum prices. Thus, in order to reduce Kenya’s external borrowing Ruto administration imposed heavy taxation on the Kenyans and was quick to withdraw food and fuel subsidies leading to the spike in prices of the basic commodities. President Ruto’s Hustler Fund which was launched to provide social protection and financial inclusion of the local Kenyans through investment in the agriculture sector and Small and Medium Enterprises did not prove to be of much success.[xiii] The Ruto administration rolled out the fund to make credit more affordable, which would have improved the overall living standards of the local Kenyans but the heavy taxation by the Ruto government and the struggling economy undermined this benefit. By  2023, the inflation  rose from 6% to 8% and the average annual income per person had reached up to 2110$.[xiv]  In 2023, Kenya also had witnessed violent protests against the government as the Ruto administration introduced a bill which called for 5% increase in the housing levy and 16% tax on petroleum.[xv] The Ruto administration made heavy cuts to the Youth Enterprise Development plan and imposed heavy import duties on the commodities that affect the common people like edible oil, vegetables and LPG gas, while the government spend heavily upon the renovation of the government buildings. This resulted in the rising mistrust between Ruto administration and Kenyan youth. Kenyan citizens were not satisfied with the decision of President Ruto to reshuffle the cabinet, claiming that the government needed to address the rising corruption, mismanagement of the public funds and waste of the public resources, and they called for the resignation of President Ruto[xvi]. According to many experts, the cabinet reshuffle appears to be a missed opportunity, as the Ruto government failed to undertake measures needed to build a culture of transparency and integrity. 

Protests in Nigeria 

The protests in Kenya seems to have inspired the youth in Nigeria to announce a nationwide anti- government protest in August 2024[xvii]. The grievances of the Nigerian youth also centered on the rising cost of living, the poor state of the economy and corruption. Being the second-largest economy in Africa, Nigeria at present is undergoing a severe financial crisis due to rising inflation and volatile exchange rate prices. President Tinubu had been striving hard to deliver on his electoral promise to repower Nigeria’s economy given that Nigeria’s national currency Naira has lost half of its value to the US dollar since 2023[xviii]. Besides, there has been a steady rise in Nigeria’s public debt driven by both domestic and external borrowing, which stood at 74.17 billion dollars in 2024[xix]. According to Nigeria’s Debt Management Office, Tinubu government has spent 4.8 billion dollars to service its debt obligations[xx]. As a result of this, right after coming to power, President Tinubu embarked on bold economic reforms as he decided to withdraw the fuel subsidies which led to a rapid spike in the fuel prices, increasing food and transportation cost. This resulted in an immediate rise in the cost of production, thereby putting the Nigerian economy into turmoil. In 2024, Nigeria’s inflation reached up to 29.9% the highest in the last three decades.[xxi] The food prices reached an all-time high, with food inflation reaching up to 35.4%.[xxii] In addition to this, Tinubu government has also removed series of electricity subsidies in order to rejuvenate the National Power Grid by putting in the public money. The policies adopted by the Tinubu administration to ease the economic shock and to reduce Nigeria’s national debt proved to be of little success.  Tinubu administration rolled out the currency redesign project in order to stop Nigeria’s central bank from fixing Naira’s rate and called for rates to be determined by the market forces of demand and supply[xxiii]. As a result of this, Nigeria’s currency plummeted to a record low of 26. 8% against the US dollar; this led to a sudden rise in prices of the imported goods and devastated small businesses[xxiv]. Amid Nigeria’s worsening economic crisis, the Tinubu government imposed new taxes such as 0.5% levy on the digital transactions and a cyber security levy.[xxv] Tinubu administration policies such as the temporary cash payment to the poor households and the distribution of grains to the people in the rural community did little to dilute the impact of the rising cost of living, given that the benefits of the schemes had not reached to most of the average Nigerians. Thus, thousands of Nigerians called for 10 days nationwide protests from 1st August 2024, wherein the protesters called for ending of bad governance by Tinubu administration and accused the government of diverting the public funds to be spent on presidential yachts and private jets of the politicians. The protests were initially peaceful but later on turned violent, which led to the deaths of about 23 Nigerians while approximately 700 protestors were being arrested.[xxvi]

In both Kenya and Nigeria, the protests, marked by widespread mobilization by traditional and digital platforms, reflected the power of collective action in holding the government responsible. The protests in Kenya and Nigeria are dubbed as the Gen Z demonstrations, which stem from the unfulfilled expectations of the Kenyans and Nigerian youth and the mistrust with the political system. What makes these protests influential is that the youth in these countries are seeking immediate and impactful change, and their potential to mobilize the cross-border solidarity through digital platforms. Kenya has high rate of internet connectivity with almost 40% of its population has access to internet; similarly 70% of the Nigerians has access to the internet. The increased access to the internet has broadened democratic spaces leading to the rise of digital activism in these states. When both the leaders William Ruto and Bola Tinubu came to power, the economies of Kenya and Nigeria were undergoing economic shock, as Kenya was struck in a debt trap, while Nigeria was witnessing a financial crisis. Both the leaders pledged to repower their country’s economy, to create sufficient employment opportunities with decent wages for the youth as well as to improve the standard of living of the average citizens during their electoral campaigns, but  the opposite happened once they came to power. What really fueled the public anger in both the states is the dichotomy that existed between the average citizens and the elites given that there was a display of wealth by the ruling elites along with stagnant wages, rising inflation, unemployment, increasing cost of living, which disrupted the trust between the youth of these countries and the government. The politicians in Kenya and Nigeria  allegedly spent massively on the renovation of the government buildings, offices and their homes. In addition to this, the economic reforms adopted by the two leaders such as the controversial financial bill in Kenya to reduce the public debt and Budget deficit, and withdrawal of fuel subsidies by the Tinubu administration to ease pressure on public finances, disproportionately burdened the average citizens. Although the protests have calmed down in these states, however, the youth in these states is less likely to be satisfied with any piecemeal changes and any further increase in taxation by the government will likely result in mass demonstrations. According to experts, there is a need for both the governments to focus on inclusive policy making, effective communication, transparency and accountability. Thus, governments in Kenya and Nigeria will likely tread a cautious path, as on one hand they have to navigate the mounting economic crisis and on the other to address the needs of the discontented youth.

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*Dr. Gauri Narain Mathur, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA).
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes 

[i] Shola Lawal. ’ Is Africa Experiencing Protest lEd Rovolution’. Aljazeera. 12 August 2024.https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/8/12/is-africa-experiencing-a-protest-led-revolution

[ii] ’ UN Cheif Says Africa Debt Situation is a Reciepe of Social Unrest’. Africa News. 5 September 2024. https://www.africanews.com/2024/09/05/un-chief-says-africas-debt-situation-is-a-recipe-for-social-unrest//.

[iii] Menzi Ndhlovu and Ronak Gopaldas. ‘African protest politics – coincidence, correction or contagion?’ ISS Africa.  19 August 2024. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/african-protest-politics-coincidence-correction-or-contagion

[iv]  Basilloh Rukanga and Jewel Kirungi.’ Double whammy for the Kenyan president's tax plans’.  BBC. 7 August 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39kk4pdek2o

[v] ‘Debt Trap: On Crisis in Kenya’. The Hindu.29 June 2024. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/%E2%80%8Bdebt-trap-on-crisis-in-kenya/article68344717.ece

[vi]IBID

[vii] Angela R. Pashayan. ‘Now Debt and Taxes conspired to rob Nairobi’s slum-dwelling youth of the promise of a better life’. The Conversation. 22 August 2023. https://theconversation.com/how-debt-and-taxes-conspired-to-rob-nairobis-slum-dwelling-youth-of-the-promise-of-a-better-life-237007

[viii] Meron Elias. ‘What is Behind Kenya’s Protest Movement?’. The International Crisis Group. 3 July 2024. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/east-and-southern-africa/kenya/what-behind-kenyas-protest-movement

[ix] ‘Debt Trap: On Crisis in Kenya’. The Hindu.29 June 2024. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/%E2%80%8Bdebt-trap-on-crisis-in-kenya/article68344717.ece

[x] ‘IBID

[xi] Basililoh Rukanga and Wycliffe Muia. ’ Kenyan President Sacks Cabinet After Tax Protests’. BCC. 11 July 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c886g5evlxjo

[xii] Peter Lockwood. ‘Kenya unrest: Ruto awakened class politics that now threatens to engulf him’. The Conversation. 3 July 2024. https://theconversation.com/kenya-unrest-ruto-awakened-class-politics-that-now-threatens-to-engulf-him-233796

[xiii] Westen K Shilao. ‘William Ruto’s first year: he promised to make life easier for Kenyans, but things got worse’ Thr Conversation. 13 November 2023. https://theconversation.com/william-rutos-first-year-he-promised-to-make-life-easier-for-kenyans-but-things-got-worse-215171

[xiv] Ibid

[xv] Ibid

[xvi] Peter Lockwood. ‘Kenya unrest: Ruto awakened class politics that now threatens to engulf him’. The Conversation. 3 July 2024. https://theconversation.com/kenya-unrest-ruto-awakened-class-politics-that-now-threatens-to-engulf-him-233796.

[xvii] Eniola Akinkuotu. ‘Nigeria: Tinubu scrambles to forestall Kenya style protests. The Africa Report. 17 July 2024. https://www.theafricareport.com/355345/nigeria-tinubu-scrambles-to-forestall-kenya-style-protests

[xix] Soutounmini Orufa. “WHAT DOES NIGERIA’S DEBT CRISIS HAVE IN COMMON WITH KENYA’S PROTEST?”. Ventures Africa. 2 July 2024. https://venturesafrica.com/what-does-nigerias-debt-crisis-have-in-common-with-kenyas-protest/

[xx] Ibid

[xxi] Adebayo Abdulrehman. ” Tinubu’s Nigeria: A year at the edge of the abyss’’. African Arguments. 3 May 2024. https://africanarguments.org/2024/05/tinubus-nigeria-a-year-on-the-edge-of-the-abyss/

[xxii] Ibid

[xxiii] Babafemi Badejo. “Developments in Kenya: Lessons for Nigeria’.  Premium Times. 13 July 2024. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/opinion/713137-developments-in-kenya-lessons-for-nigeria-by-babafemi-a-badejo.html

[xxiv] Pelumi Salako. “Will Bola Tinubu Reforms Help or Harm Nigeria.’ Foreign Policy. 24 July 2023. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/24/nigeria-tinubu-reform-economic-development-debt-imf-world-bank/

[xxv] Olisa Chuckwuma, Ben Shemang and Isaac Kaaledi. ”Nigerian’s Struggles to Make ends Meet amid economic Crisis’.DW. 8July 2024. https://www.dw.com/en/nigerians-struggle-to-make-ends-meet-amid-economic-crisis/a-69656094#:~:text=What's%20causing%20the%20crisis%3F,more%20than%20200%20million%20people.

[xxvi] Ayodeji Rotinwa. “ Why Nigeria’s Anti – Inflation Protests are Unlikely to Lead any Real Change’. Open Democracy. 13 August 2024. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/nigeria-protests-president-tinubu-action-afolabi-adekaiyaoja-interview-end-hunger-bad-governance/