The legal challenges and assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, the withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris winning the Democratic nomination have shaped the race to the 2024 election that is being viewed as pivotal for American politics. With the first ballots already being cast in some key battleground States the two candidates are intensifying their last minute outreach to the voters. As the two candidates make their final attempts to outline their policies to the American voters before the voting date on 05 November, it is becoming clear that the future trajectory of not just American foreign policy but the direction of several key domestic issues is likely to change depending on which candidate comes to occupy the White House. The elections take place in the backdrop of a deepening political divide that neither party is able to bridge. Polls indicate that it will be a tight race. The first and only debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump provided them with the space to answer questions, offer rebuttals and share clarifications or responses on their policy stands. However, with both candidates continuing to be neck-to-neck in opinion polls, the race to the White House remains open.
According to the 2024 Chicago Council Survey (CCS), fielded from 21 June 2024 to 1 July 2024, most Americans are paying close attention to the electoral contest and intend to vote in November.[i] It is clear that while foreign policy issues will be a factor on the voters’ minds, domestic issues will help decide the next President of the United States. The data show economics, immigration, access to affordable healthcare, housing, etc. are the most salient issues to American voters. The Republicans have focused on inflation and the state of the economy, while the Democrats have emphasised abortion rights and stimulating the growth of small businesses. Both parties have outlined their plans to address the growing immigration crisis in the United States.
This paper highlights three domestic issues that are important for the American people as they decide the next occupant of the White House.
Domestic Issues and 2024 Elections
- The Economy and Inflation – The economy has long been a priority for American voters and continues to this date. Per a Pew Research Poll (September 2024), as concerns around the state of the economy and inflation continue, about eight of 10 registered voters (81%) say the economy will be very important to their vote in the 2024 Presidential election.[ii] Per a report released by the Committee for a Responsible Budget, a non-partisan group focused on American fiscal health, the next President will face considerable fiscal challenges, including record debt levels, large structural deficits, surging interest payments and the looming insolvency of critical trust fund programmes.[iii] Neither of the two candidates have outlined their plans to reduce the national debt, which is a rising concern given that the U.S. economy is linked to the global economy, and any slowdown will have a global impact. Vice President Harris has stressed stimulating the economy with a focus on small businesses and the manufacturing sector. To ease the burden on families, she has stated that she will increase spending on childcare support and education and also increase support for the housing and healthcare sectors. She also will continue the current Administration’s efforts to reduce the cost of prescription drugs. To reduce food inflation, she has proposed banning price gouging[iv] on groceries. To help offset the costs of her plan, Vice President Harris has proposed increasing taxes on corporations and high-income households and reducing prescription drug prices. Former President Trump has proposed reducing the corporate tax rate for domestic production, exempting various types of income from the income tax and repealing green energy tax credits. He has stated that he will offset those cuts through higher growth and tariffs on imports. He has proposed new 10%–20% tariffs on most foreign goods and much higher ones on those from China. He has also stressed that he will reduce illegal immigration, which is a burden on the US economy.
- Immigration and border security have become a key issue in the U.S. elections. About six of 10 voters (61%) say that immigration is very important to their vote — a 9% point increase from the 2020 Presidential elections and 13 points higher than what was observed during the 2022 congressional elections.[v] The rise in illegal immigration, resource constraints, an overburdened immigration system and a divided public opinion have led to a call for reforms in the system. The fact that the immigration system is overburdened and needs reforms has been acknowledged by both parties. However, they are divided on how to address the crisis. Differences on the issue have caused bills in the US Congress to be stalled, including on critical issues of US foreign policy such as aid to Ukraine. The issue has gained prominence in the Republican Party campaign that has linked increased illegal immigration with increased crime and the poor state of the economy. They have claimed that the lenient policies of the Biden Administration have encouraged the surge in illegal crossings, highlighting the strain on border resources and overcrowded detention centres as proof of the failures of the current Administration. Former President Trump has reiterated his plans for mass deportation of undocumented migrants. However, unlike his first time, he has stated that he will use the National Guard[vi] to implement the policy. He has also stated that he would end birthright citizenship for people born in the U.S. whose parents are in the country illegally.
Vice President Harris, during her visit to the border for her campaign, stated that she wanted to build an asylum system that would help secure the borders but also create a system that was safe and humane. She outlined that she would work to restrict asylum claims and further extend the restrictions that have been placed by the Biden Administration. She endorsed a comprehensive reform of immigration reform, seeking pathways to citizenship for immigrants in the US without legal status with faster processing for people who arrived illegally in the United States as minors. Immigration and border security are top issues in Arizona, the only battleground state that borders Mexico and one that contended with a record influx of asylum seekers last year.
- Following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022, opinions about the importance of abortion as a voting issue have shifted. Abortion is a top issue in the 2024 election, with a growing share of voters in swing states keeping it in mind as they decide on their votes. On 3 September, Vice President Kamala Harris began a “Fighting for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour in Florida, a state the Democratic Party has lost in the last two presidential elections but which has abortion on the ballot this year. For the Democratic Party, their position to allow women to make choices about their bodies and provide access to medical care has been reiterated by Vice President Harris in various campaign speeches, including in the debate with former President Trump. The Republican Party has long called for restrictions on abortion, and the party supports that states should be able to decide and not the federal government. Since 2022, 14 states have adopted abortion bans, and many have set early limits on the procedure. The conversation around limiting abortion has expanded to In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) and contraception. President Trump has taken the credit for overturning the Roe v. Wade decision, but as the party finds that the majority of Americans’ support for legalised abortion and pre-reproductive rights positions has won support on the ballot, the party is trying to find a middle ground that will help them getting the support of the undecided voters. In some swing states such as Georgia and Arizona, which are crucial for the Presidential elections, the question of how states should regulate legalised abortion has become an issue that will have an impact on how the voters cast their ballots. While the two major parties have stated their positions on the question of abortion, there are differing opinions with both parties on the best approach towards the issue. Abortion rights is particularly important to women voters, including young women. The two candidates are trying to engage with them as much as possible to not just educate them about their stand but also to hear from the voters on what they want.
Conclusion
With one of the most anticipated elections to be held in less than two weeks, it remains to be seen which candidate is able to get the support of the American voters. While the two major parties agree on broader issues, such as the need to arrest inflation, provide affordable housing and child care, find solutions to the looming debt crisis and reform the overburdened immigration system, they differ on the paths to achieving these goals. Irrespective of who comes to occupy the White House, the politics in the United States is likely to witness change in the coming years. The elections will decide the future ideological course of the two major parties, and if they need correction before the midterm elections in 2026, that will determine the composition of the next U.S. Congress. With challenges in the domestic and foreign policy spheres, the next President of the United States would need bipartisan support to address these challenges.
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*Dr Stuti Banerjee is a Senior Research Fellow with ICWA.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] The Chicago Council of Global Affairs, “Domestic Issues Overshadow Foreign Conflicts in 2024 Voting Decisions,” http://www.globalaffairs.net/research/public-opinion-survey/domestic-issues-overshadow-foreign-conflicts-2024-voting-decisions, Accessed on 09 September 2024.
[ii] Pew Research Centre, “Issues and 2024 Elections,” https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/, Accessed on September 30, 2024.
[iii] Committee for a Responsible Budget, “The Fiscal Impact of Harris and Trump Campaign Plans.” https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans#_ednref1, Accessed on October 15, 2024.
[iv] Businesses are allowed to increase prices, but they are not allowed to raise the price of products excessively to take advantage of a current crisis.
[v] Pew Research Centre, “Issues and 2024 Elections,” https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/, Accessed on September 30, 2024.
[vi] The National Guard is the primary combat reserve of the Army and Air Force, seamlessly providing enduring, rotational, surge and follow-on forces to the Joint Force to fight and win the United States’ wars and defend the homeland. It is called in to assist the state to respond to crises within the country too.