Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: The political scandals surrounding the LDP have not augured well for Japan’s ruling party polity, domestic stability, economy, as well as for people’s overall trust and confidence. The results of the 27 October 2024 snap general election depicted the voters rebuke for the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance, triggering a hung parliament. A special parliamentary session on 11 November 2024 finally decided that Shigeru Ishiba will remain the next Japanese Prime Minister, but without a majority in the Lower House. 

Background 

As expected, on 9 October 2024, Shigeru Ishiba dissolved the Lower House and announced snap elections for 27 October 2024, after just eight days of being elected leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and taking over as the interim Prime Minister due to the LDP-Komeito alliance majority in the Lower House. The 26-day interval between his inauguration and the next general elections went down in Japan’s history as the shortest in the post-war period. It would have turned out to be the shortest tenure for any LDP leader projected to ascend as the Prime Minister if it were not for the unexpected first runoff vote in 30 years during a special parliamentary session held on 11 November 2024, where Shigeru Ishiba was finally re-elected as the 103^rd Prime Minister of Japan.[i]

Ishiba and his ruling LDP promised of cleaning up politics and reinventing the age-old party after the unending scandals, from linkage to the Unification Church to party slush fund embezzlement that had enveloped the ruling LDP. The general elections involved the domestic voters whose voting patterns did not necessarily reflect the patterns of the LDP members during the party leadership elections. The general election was considered a pivotal moment for the LDP and even a gamble for the party’s future. 

As the 27 October 2024 general election results were declared, the verdict mirrored pre-election voters’ surveys of shifting sentiments amongst the voters, leading to the LDP losing its parliamentary majority.[ii] The last time LDP lost the general elections was in 2009, when the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won a smashing majority (308 out of 480 seats) in the 2009 Lower House election.[iii]

General Election Outcome

The result of the snap general election held on 27 October 2024 declared that Shigeru Ishida’s political gamble has backfired. The LDP-Komeito alliance underestimated the extent of people’s distrust and anger and is now restricted to 215 seats, which is 18 short of the majority 233 mark.[iv] It is reported that over 60 per cent of the candidates involved in the LDP slush funds scandal failed to secure their seats.[v] The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) rose from 98 seats to secure 148 seats.[vi] The survey report by Kyodo News expresses that the support rate for Ishiba's cabinet fell to 32 per cent after the election, and 53 per cent did not want the LDP’s ruling coalition to stay in power.[vii] Many voters increasingly turned to opposition parties, seeking alternatives that promised to address the pressing economic challenges and provide a fresh perspective on governance. The current political climate is complicated by a general sense of dissatisfaction with the existing state of affairs, which was visible through the outcome of the general election as it resonated across different segments of the population.

Source: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/17a98663e6d7-japanese-go-to-polls-as-new-pm-eyes-fresh-mandate-amid-money-scandal.html

Source: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/17a98663e6d7-japanese-go-to-polls-as-new-pm-eyes-fresh-mandate-amid-money-scandal.html

The extraordinary developments forced the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance to reach out to the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) to form a minority government.[viii] The DPP won a total of 28 seats, which is an increase of 21 from the earlier 7 seats, while another opposition group called the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) dropped from 43 to 38.[ix] The outpouring of voter outrage resulting in a hung Parliament is spurring the opposition parties to formulate strategies to capitalise on the LDP’s loss of majority in the Lower House. The DPP had stated that it would not join the LDP-Komeito coalition but may support some of their policies on a case-to-case basis.[x] 

Special Parliamentary Session Outcome 

The snap general election outcome with a hung parliament meant that a special parliamentary session was scheduled on 11 November 2024 to have a runoff voting for the first time in thirty years to pick a Prime Minister between the leaders of the top two finishers, Shigeru Ishiba for LDP and Yoshihiko Noda for CDPJ. The developments also led to a complex situation amongst the opposition parties as they could not come to a mutual agreement to form a united opposition through a consensus candidate. 

The main opposition CDPJ rallied for their leader, Yoshihiko Noda, whereas the other opposition parties, such as the DPP and the Japanese Innovation Party, each decided to vote for their respective leaders. The result was that out of the 465 ballots cast by the members of the Lower House, the LDP leader Shigeru Ishiba received 221 votes, Noda gained 160 votes, and 84 were invalid ballots as they went to other candidates not listed in the runoff.[xi] Fortunately, for Ishiba, the opposition parties were unable to agree upon a mutual candidate. If the opposition parties were successful in having a mutual agreement, they most likely would have been able to form a government with around 244 (160 + 84) votes for a consensus Prime Ministerial candidate. 

As the dust settles from Ishiba’s political gamble and the chips fall into place, the LDP-Komeito coalition has come out struggling to hold on to power. The stage is now set for the LDP coalition to run a minority government with significant concessions to the opposition side on the cards. One of these hard-hitting concessions will be that an opposition member from the CDPJ[xii] will chair the powerful Lower House Budget Committee for the first time in three decades.[xiii] Another important post for political reform, the Commission on the Constitution of the House of Representatives, the all-important lower chamber of parliament, was also conceded to the CDPJ.[xiv]

The Ishida cabinet is expected to have a difficult time managing the government, especially with the need to achieve cooperation from opposition members in the budget committee to pass the extra budget bill by the end of the year.[xv] There is also speculation surrounding Ishiba’s tenure being temporary as his position will be threatened with a no-confidence motion, with analysts suggesting he might step down as early as March next year in exchange for commitments from opposition parties on the budget bill.[xvi]

Additionally, the opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda is also looking to push the LDP-led minority government for additional revisions to the Political Fund Control Law, which is already an agreeable objective for the other opposition parties like the DPP and the Japan Innovation Party.[xvii] The LDP coalition, for the first time in decades, will find out how, without a majority, the future Diet deliberations will be time-consuming and an avenue to concede more grounds to the opposition demands in order to pass any bills. 

Conclusion 

The re-election of Shigeru Ishiba, amidst such a political fix, will offer a glimpse into how the LDP-led minority government will respond to accommodate the opposition demands. The trajectory Ishiba’s minority government undertakes to find common ground over economic measures and political reforms will eventually decide if his coalition party survives a full term. 

Japan has experienced a transformative election. The LDP’s dominance has been challenged due to voter sentiments shifting with the political scandals and economic concerns of the last decade or so taking centre stage. The rise of opposition parties suggests a new political era has arrived, and their longevity may redefine governance in Japan. As the political landscape evolves, all eyes will be on how these dynamics play out and shapes the direction of the country as a whole. In the meanwhile, it is unstable polity for Japan yet again.

***** 

*Dr. Tunchinmang Langel, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal

Endnotes

[i] Prime Minister’s Office of Japan, 2024, “Designation of the Prime Minister,” November 11, 2024, https://japan.kantei.go.jp/103/actions/202411/11shimei.html (Accessed November 12, 2024)

[ii] Kyodo News, 2024, “Japan ruling bloc struggling to retain lower house majority: poll,” October 22, 2024, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/cc161ecd3253-japan-ruling-bloc-struggling-to-retain-lower-house-majority-poll.html (Accessed October 22, 2024)

[iii] Weston S. Konishi, 2009, “Japan’s Historic 2009 Elections: Implications for U.S. Interests,” Congressional Research Service, September 8, 2009, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R40758.pdf (Accessed October 22, 2024)

[iv] The Asahi Shimbun, 2024, “Ruling coalition loses control of Lower House in rebuke by voters,” October 28, 2024, https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15484108 (Accessed October 29, 2024)

[v] Jiji, 2024, “60% of 'slush fund' candidates lose in Japan Lower House poll,” The Japan Times, October 28, 2024, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/10/28/japan/politics/japan-lower-house-election-slush-fund-scandal-loss/ (Accessed November 11, 2024)

[vi] Kyodo News, 2024, “Japan PM seeks partners after ruling bloc loses lower house majority,” October 28, 2024, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/33076ebdd8e3-japan-pm-seeks-partners-after-ruling-bloc-loses-lower-house-majority.html (Accessed November 11, 2024)

[vii] Kyodo News, 2024, “Support rate for Ishiba's Cabinet falls to 32% after election: poll,” October 29, 2024, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/4725ab69ef1d-urgent-support-rate-for-ishibas-cabinet-falls-to-32-after-election-poll.html (Accessed November 11, 2024)

[viii] Kaoru Osawa, 2024, “Japan's Ishiba eyes minority government after opposition shuns coalition,” Nikkei Asia, October 30, 2024, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-election/Japan-s-Ishiba-eyes-minority-government-after-opposition-shuns-coalition (Accessed November 11, 2024)

[ix] Noriyuki Suzuki, 2024, “Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM,” Kyodo News, October 28, 2024, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/17a98663e6d7-japanese-go-to-polls-as-new-pm-eyes-fresh-mandate-amid-money-scandal.html (Accessed November 11, 2024)

[x] Yoshiaki Nohara and Akemi Terukina, 2024, “Japan's Key Opposition Party Supports Leader Despite Infidelity Report,” BNN Bloomberg, November 10, 2024, https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/11/11/japans-dpp-will-support-tamaki-for-premiership-as-planned/ (Accessed November 11, 2024)

[xi] Doni Tani, 2024, “Ishiba elected prime minister in runoff at special Diet session,” The Asahi Shimbun, November 11, 2024, https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15503139 (Accessed November 12, 2024)

[xii] Doni Tani, 2024, “Ishiba elected prime minister in runoff at special Diet session,” The Asahi Shimbun, November 11, 2024, https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15503139 (Accessed November 12, 2024)

[xiii] Noriyuki Suzuki, 2024, “Ishiba formally reelected as Japan PM, eyes minority gov't,” Kyodo News, November 12, 2024,  https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/11/58a9cd9d684b-ishiba-poised-to-be-reelected-as-japan-pm-eyes-minority-govt.html (Accessed November 12, 2024)

[xiv] Jiji, 2024, “CDP's Yukio Edano to chair Lower House Constitution panel,” The Japan Times, November 9, 2024, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/11/09/japan/politics/yukio-edano-lower-house-constitution-panel/ (Accessed November 12, 2024)

[xv] Tomoyuki Tachikawa, 2024, “FOCUS: Japan PM Ishiba's minority gov't to struggle to pursue policy agenda,” Kyodo News, November 12, 2024, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/11/99c48c75e853-focus-japan-pm-ishibas-minority-govt-to-struggle-to-pursue-policy-agenda.html (Accessed November 12, 2024)

[xvi] Tomoyuki Tachikawa, 2024, “FOCUS: Japan PM Ishiba's minority gov't to struggle to pursue policy agenda,” Kyodo News, November 12, 2024, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/11/99c48c75e853-focus-japan-pm-ishibas-minority-govt-to-struggle-to-pursue-policy-agenda.html (Accessed November 12, 2024)

[xvii] Doni Tani, 2024, “Ishiba elected prime minister in runoff at special Diet session,” The Asahi Shimbun, November 11, 2024, https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15503139 (Accessed November 12, 2024)