Indian Council of World Affairs

In 2021, the United States withdrew its forces from Afghanistan, ending its more than twenty years of military operation in the country. The Taliban returned to power to form the government in the backdrop of the collapse of both the Afghan National Security forces and the elected government. While Afghanistan has achieved a moderate degree of stability, the humanitarian crisis persists, the economy is devastated, and the country continues to need international assistance. Today, the security landscape in Afghanistan under the Taliban rule paradoxically reveals a country significantly more peaceful than it was before, thought there remain pockets of violence that threaten the security of the country and the region. 

The United States does not recognise the Taliban or the government and has long-standing sanctions against key members of the Taliban, who are now key members of the government. This presents a dilemma for the United States as it becomes evident that the Taliban faces no effective political or armed opposition; they are likely to remain in power for the immediate future. This would require the United States and the international community to find a middle ground between engaging with the Taliban to prevent a humanitarian crisis and achieving the broader strategic goal of stability in Afghanistan. Alternatively, they could pursue a path of isolating Afghanistan in an effort to push the Taliban to make some changes and adhere to international norms. These norms include providing equal rights to women and girls, protecting minorities, ensuring financial transparency, pursuing development work for enhanced people welfare and de-radicalisation initiatives. 

In this context, this paper will analyse the current challenges that the United States policymakers face with respect to Afghanistan.

The Return of the Taliban and the Challenges before the United States

The American withdrawal, while sudden, had been in the making for a long time. The first mention of a drawdown of troops was proposed by the Obama Administration in 2009. However, the Administration was unable to accomplish its goal. Thereafter, President Trump negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban and started troop reduction. President Biden delayed the 1 May 2022 deadline that had been negotiated by his predecessor but finally withdrew all troops by the end of August 2022.

The Geopolitical Competition

While the United States ended its engagement in America’s longest war, it also created a power vacuum, as the withdrawal also ended international assistance in the country and the sudden withdrawal of many civil society organisations that was much needed.

China has tried to fill the gap and has increased its engagements with the Taliban for two primary reasons. The first is the issue of terrorism. China remains apprehensive about the fundamentalist and terrorist groups becoming active on the border, especially the regions bordering the Xinjiang province of China. The second interest is economic in nature. Instability in the region will affect broader Chinese economic engagements, including Belt and Road initiatives and the economic corridor with Pakistan. Apart from this, China is also interested in the untapped mineral resources available in Afghanistan. According to the reports of the US Geographical Survey (USGS)[i] and satellite mapping of the country, the USGS estimates upwards of $900 billion worth of mineral reserves are present in a number of different forms, including copper, iron, gold, and most notably, more than one million metric tons of rare earth elements.[ii] Many experts feel that this is a conservative estimate with the more discoveries yet to be made. The Taliban is open to international investments in the extraction of these minerals, and China has been awarded contracts to develop copper and iron mines. However, extraction remains a problem due to security concerns. Apart from security, the availability of energy resources to extract these resources also remains questionable. Along with this, the concerns of corruption among the officials, the negative image of extractive industries, especially in poor countries, is being exploited by the more developed economies, and environmental concerns are there. 

China also wants to play a role in Afghanistan in keeping with its ambition of a global and regional hegemon. However, it is likely to wait for the country to become more stable before it invests more into its economy. For its part, the Taliban has been receptive to China, calling it an important partner and stating that they look forward to working with China for the development of Afghanistan. 

Apart from China, the United States policymakers have also to be mindful of the interest of Russia in Afghanistan and the increasing alignment of interests between Russia and China. The withdrawal of American troops from Kabul was viewed as an indication of the decline of Washington’s power nonetheless; Moscow does not want instability in its neighbourhood. Afghanistan borders the Central Asian nations, and Russia would like to ensure that there is no cross-border infiltration of transnational terrorist groups that may threaten the stability in its area of influence. Russia is also aware of non-traditional security threats such as drug trafficking and arms proliferation and is working with Central Asian nations and Afghanistan to address this. However, given its own past experience in Afghanistan, Russia would not like to get too involved in the domestic politics in Afghanistan. It is likely that Russia would continue to collaborate with China to block more international sanctions on the Taliban and its leaders, end the isolation of the Taliban-led government, and be seen as a mediator that would help relations between Afghanistan and the Eurasian region. While Russia does not have tangible solutions to the regional security concerns, however, along with China, it has established its presence in Afghanistan in the absence of any engagement from the United States. 

For the United States, this growing proximity between China and Russia and their convergences in international issues, including Afghanistan, present a challenge. China and Russia have been successful in blocking a number of United Nations Security Council resolutions pertaining to sanctions on members of the Taliban. 

Within the neighbourhood, Pakistan had seen the return of the Taliban as an opportunity to reconfigure relations with Afghanistan. However, there are indications that the return of the Taliban is posing some challenges for Islamabad. The return of the Taliban has provided a moral boost to a number of Pakistan-based terrorist organisations. It has witnessed a number of terrorist attacks that have claimed the lives of a number of innocent people. The Pakistan government has conducted military strikes on its northern border in counter-terrorism operations. The Taliban has described the strike as a violation of its sovereignty. Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are further complicated by a long-running and ethnically tinged dispute over their shared 1,600-mile border, at which Taliban and Pakistani government forces have intermittently clashed, as well as by the overwhelming presence of Afghan refugees in Pakistan. In November 2023, Pakistan’s government abruptly ordered unregistered Afghan refugees to leave Pakistan, displacing hundreds of thousands people thereby escalating tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan. This has further added to the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan amidst concern for the safety of the refugees who return. 

Pakistan is facing its own internal political and economic crisis; this, along with the situation in Afghanistan, is a concern for the stability of the broader region, which needs the attention of the incoming Administration in the United States.

Counter-Terrorism 

For the United States, counter-terrorism remains a primary concern in its policy towards Afghanistan. The al-Qaeda and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) have significant presence in Afghanistan. The ISKP has opposed the return of the Taliban and has launched a number of attacks against the Taliban officials and killed civilians and ethnic minorities. The concern of the intelligence agencies is that while the ISKP seeks to control territories within Afghanistan to infiltrate neighbouring countries, it is also engaged in terror attacks outside of Afghanistan, such as the ones in Iran and Russia, with the group’s willingness to conduct attacks on European soil. According to Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (February 2024), “ISIS-Khorasan is trying to conduct attacks that undermine the legitimacy of the Taliban regime by expanding attacks against foreign interests in Afghanistan.”[iii]

The al-Qaeda has a much closer relation with the Taliban, and the various U.S. and UN sanctions have not been able to break these ties. The al-Qaeda continues to operate from Afghanistan, and the concern is that it is strengthening its network in Africa and will continue to attack U.S. and allied interests. According to the U.S. intelligence, “Both al-Qa‘ida and ISIS, inspired by the HAMAS attack against Israel, have directed their supporters to conduct attacks against Israeli and U.S. interests”.[iv] From the onset of the withdrawal, the U.S. officials had maintained that they retain the ability to address terrorist threats from Afghanistan without military presence on the ground by utilising bases outside of Afghanistan. This strategy was based on the support that would be extended by the previously elected Afghan government. With the Taliban in power, the United States had to make changes to its policy for gathering intelligence, but it remains difficult. The National Security Strategy 2022 outlines that the United States will shift its strategy, that is, “U.S.-led, partner-enabled” to one that is “partner-led, U.S.-enabled.” This would be done through building or expanding systems to prevent, detect, and respond to threats as they develop while also addressing the root causes of radicalisation by leveraging the U.S. and partners’ efforts to support effective governance, promote stabilisation and economic development, and resolve ongoing conflicts,[v]reflecting the U.S willingness to shoulder the burden of brining about stabilisation in Afghanistan post-withdrawal along with partners.  

The Humanitarian Crisis and the Economic Contraction 

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees’ 2023 Global Trends report, by the end of 2023, the number of Afghan refugees reported globally was 6.4 million, accounting for one of the largest protracted refugee situations in the world.[vi] The Afghan people face violence, acute poverty, and food insecurity, with the nation dependent on international aid to provide food, education, and healthcare to its people. Decades of conflict and instability have devastated the economy of Afghanistan. In addition to the ongoing conflict, Afghanistan has been impacted by recurrent natural disasters, including droughts, floods, and earthquakes, leaving thousands of Afghans, including displaced people and returnees, in urgent need of assistance. The impact on women and children has been particularly devastating. The fundamental rights of women and girls are under threat, and many children are out of school. Along with this, malnutrition among children, especially girl child, remains extremely high. The Taliban has also placed restrictions on women’s ability to work, which has further effected the redevelopment of the economy, with half the population not eligible to contribute due to their gender thus affected the home economics of households. The United States has expressed concern over the large-scale displacement and the treatment of women, girls, and minorities. 

Aware of the situation, the United States has provided humanitarian aid to Afghanistan and is the single largest humanitarian donor in Afghanistan, providing nearly $2 billion in humanitarian assistance for Afghans since mid-August 2021.[vii] However, given the magnitude of the problem, the aid provided is insufficient. While the international community, including the United States, is concerned about the plight of the Afghan people and supports international assistance to the country, the Taliban government’s ability to divert or misuse funds for humanitarian assistance and allegations that it has done so in the past make aid distribution difficult. The pause in aid and the fact that the United States and partners have suspended infrastructure projects and other forms of aid granted by the World Bank, IMF, and the Asian Development Bank, along with freezing the Afghan government’s reserves held in U.S. bank accounts, have further added to the economic collapse. 

The reality for the United States is that while there is an immediate need for humanitarian aid, but aid is not the long-term solution, and Afghanistan needs to build a viable, self-sustaining economy and effective governance mechanisms. The practical problem for the American policymakers is to first understand to what level it can provide aid to Afghanistan under the Taliban and what terms and conditions, if any, it can impose on the Taliban for using this aid. Second, how to ensure the aid is not diverted for other purposes by the Taliban.

Conclusion 

The strategic location of Afghanistan, the need to counterbalance the growing interests of China and Russia, and the need to monitor the region for counter-terrorism information and find solutions to the humanitarian crisis are some of the challenges that the United States is trying to address as it builds an Afghan policy. Even as the United States does not recognise the Taliban-led government, with no other viable opposition, it has to answer the question if it can continue to remain disengaged. Continued disengagement would allow China and Russia more space to deepen their ties, yet engagement with the Taliban would have its own ramifications for the U.S. counter-terrorism policies. The other question is how much to engage with the Taliban led government and if engagement is the preferred solution to address the challenges emanating from Afghanistan. The third fundamental challenge remains of how to pursue U.S. policy priorities that may be difficult to reconcile: stabilising Afghanistan and providing support to Afghans while avoiding actions that might benefit the radical character of the Taliban. 

Being landlocked with poor economic development and a looming humanitarian crisis, Afghanistan again stands at the crossroads, facing an uncertain future. This uncertainty is detrimental to the region’s peace and security. The incoming Trump Administration is yet to outline its Afghan policy, nonetheless, with concerns related to terrorism, the growing tensions between the United States with China and Russia, and its larger role in the region, the incoming Administration along with American partners work together to find the most viable solutions to the challenges presented by Afghanistan.

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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee is a Senior Research Fellow with ICWA.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Reports are available at https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/usgs-projects-in-afghanistan/publications

[ii] https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2012/07/new-usgs-report-and-maps-highlight-afghanistans-mineral-potential-but-obstacles-remain/

[iii] Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (February 2024),” https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf, Accessed on 07 November 2024.

[iv] Ibid.

[v] The White House, “National Security Strategy 2022,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf, Accessed on 07 November 2024.

[vi] The United Nations Refugee Agency, “Afghanistan Refugee Crisis Explained,” https://www.unrefugees.org/news/afghanistan-refugee-crisis-explained/#:~:text=Four%20decades%20of%20conflict%20and%20instability%20in%20Afghanistan%20have%20left,Afghanistan%20face%20acute%20food%20insecurity, Accessed on 07 November 2024

[vii] USAID, “Afghanistan,” https://www.usaid.gov/humanitarian-assistance/afghanistan#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20Government%20is%20the,from%20USAID%E2%80%94%20since%20August%202021.Accessed on 08 November 2024.