Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract : The fall of the House of Assad in Syria, led by Bashar Al Assad, marks an important event with implications for the region and beyond. While symbolising Türkiye’s gain and Iran’s loss, it compels us to think about stability in the broader Middle East. 

Introduction 

The year is ending with the fall of Bashar Al Assad in Syria. While 2024 had its share of ups and downs, the ouster of Assad from Syria is a mammoth event with monumental implications for the region and beyond. It is a culmination of the 13-year-long instability and chaos induced by the Arab Spring. With a hope to begin the much-needed reconstruction and rehabilitation processes, Syrians were cheering and celebrating while the world watched with bated breath.

The jubilation turned macabre with rebels destroying and burning the grave of Bashar Al Assad’s parents, Hafiz Al Assad and Anisa Makhlouf, in Qardaha. Bullet casings littered on the mausoleum floor reflected the pent-up frustration and hopelessness of the Syrian people keen to wipe off signs of Assad’s legacy from public life.[i] Nevertheless, the fall of Assad that had overcome the initial challenge by the opposition groups with the support of Iran, Hezbollah and Russia raises pertinent questions about the future of Syria. 

The fact that Syria was gradually accepted by the broader Arab world projected a positive and stable picture for the Assad government. But the rebel offensive that began late in November 2024 and the swift capture of Aleppo on 30 November leading to the removal of Assad reflect that the discontent ran deep and the rebel groups like Hayat Al Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) were strong and waited for the opportune moment when Russia is engaged in Ukraine, Hezbollah is weakened, and Iran is unable to provide adequate support. It also underlines that Türkiye was keenly observing the situation in Syria and struck at the right moment. 

Türkiye’s Gain 

Türkiye supported the rebel groups intending to marginalise Kurdish groups in Syria and enable the return of three million Syrian refugees. However, in course, it stamps its presence and significance in the region. Ankara has not only demonstrated its importance in the Fertile Crescent but has also re-emphasised its capabilities and position as a regional middle power. 

The fall of Assad is being viewed by some as Türkiye’s opportunity to reshape Syria in a way that benefits Ankara’s interests. However, Türkiye’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has refuted such speculations, saying that it is not eying the territory of any other country and is concerned with cross-border terrorist activities. He also said that Türkiye will not allow Syria to be divided again, and anyone attacking the freedom of the Syrians, the stability of the new government in Syria and the integrity of its territory will have to face Türkiye.[ii]

Iran’s Loss 

The fall of Assad also signifies a break in Iran’s “axis of resistance” in the region. With weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, the lack of possibility of sanctioned Iran joining Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during Trump 2.0, and the rule of Assad coming to an end in Syria, the axis of resistance seems to have cracked if not broken completely. The end of Assad’s rule in Syria symbolises loss of Iran’s influence in the region. Iran had come face to face with Israel a number of times as the Hamas-led Gaza crisis completed a year in October 2024. However, its presence in Syria depicted Tehran as an important factor in the Fertile Crescent. Israel had been targeting the Iranian centres in Syria, and following the fall of Assad, it has been engaged in bombing the chemical weapons centres and ISIS settlements and arms centres. 

The Gulf Response 

Also, Gulf countries that had begun seeking alternatives by engaging with Russia in the wake of the US withdrawal from the region will now have to re-calibrate their policies in line with the changed dynamics. In response to the fall of Assad, Qatar renewed its call to end the crisis in Syria along the lines of the 2015 UN Security Council Resolution 2254, laying out the steps for a ceasefire and political transition. Saudi Arabia said it is communicating with the regional actors and is doing everything possible to prevent a chaotic outcome in Syria.[iii]

The UAE and Oman indeed responded, expressing concerns about the future of Syria. At the Manama dialogue, Anwar Gargash, the UAE diplomatic adviser to the president, said that non-state actors should not be allowed the opportunity to exploit political vacuums, and unfolding events in Syria are a clear indication of political failure and the destructive nature of conflict and chaos.[iv] Oman condemned Israel’s continued military bombardments of Damascus and other areas in Syria, as it occupies new parts of Syrian territory within the buffer zone.[v] Kuwait gave a balanced response, underlining its support for Syria to achieve stability by preserving its national institutions and dialogue.[vi] 

The Question of Domination 

When Russia supported the Syrian government in 2014, virtually saving the Assad rule, it was labelled as the beginning of Moscow’s re-assertion in the region; therefore, the fall of the Assad in 2024 dents that perception. As for the US, in January 2025, when Donald Trump returns as the 47^th President of America, he will certainly have more room to manoeuvre in the Middle East. 

New Government in Syria

The most important question is about the future of Syria with Assad no longer in power and despite the optimism in the air, the transition will be arduous. The rebel leader, Abu Mohammed Al Golani, has announced the establishment of transitional authority, and Assad’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al Jalali is to oversee the transition of power, there is scepticism about the capability of HTS to rule along with the fear of the establishment of a radical Islamist rule under its leadership. Along with that, the question of the safety of the Alawite and other ethnic and religious minorities, including Christians, Druze and Kurds, remains important. The last thing Syria needs is the replacement of a secular government with an extremist one.

Conclusion

Lastly, the fall of Assad denotes the end of an era of leaders and families who came to power after revolutions, were loved and adored by the people, ruled with an iron fist for decades, bred discontent, were abhorred and finally removed from thrones. The region is neither new to such phenomena nor oblivious to them and will have certain repercussions in the future.

As the situation in Syria remains uncertain, serious questions arise about the peace and stability in the Middle East that has evaded the region since 2010 –11. At this juncture, regional and external actors wished for a peaceful transition and hoped that Syria would not implode like Libya, Iraq or Yemen. However, uncertainty looms, and doubts remain on the future of Syria and Syrians.

India is closely monitoring the situation in Syria and has also underlined the need for all parties to work towards preserving the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria. It advocates a peaceful and inclusive Syrian-led political process, respecting the interests and aspirations of all sections of Syrian society. It is also concerned about the safety and security of the Indian community in Syria, and the Indian embassy in Damascus is in contact with the Indians. In the wake of the crisis, New Delhi had issued a travel advisory against Syria earlier.

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*Dr Lakshmi Priya, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Tuvan Gumrukcu and Umit Bektas, Amid ashes of Assad family's mausoleum, Syrian rebels vow to erase their legacy, Reuters, December 13, 2024, available at https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/amid-ashes-assad-familys-mausoleum-syrian-rebels-vow-erase-their-legacy-2024-12-12/ accessed on December 16, 2024.

[ii] Assad’s Fall: Will Erdogan get his ‘leader of the Muslim World’ moment? Times of India, December 11, 2024, available at https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/assads-fall-will-erdogan-get-his-leader-of-the-muslim-world-moment/articleshow/116217833.cms accessed on December 16, 2024.

[iii] World reaction to end of Assad rule in Syria, VOA News, 08 December 2024, available at https://www.voanews.com/a/world-reaction-to-end-of-assad-rule-in-syria/7891894.html accessed on December 16, 2024.

[iv] World reacts to Bashar al-Assad’s fall, capture of Syria’s Damascus, Al Jazeera, 08 December 2024, available at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/world-reacts-to-bashar-al-assads-fall-capture-of-damascus accessed on December 12, 2024.

[v] Jon Donnison, Israel Seizes Golan Buffer Zone After Syrian Troops Leave Positions, BBC, December 09, 2024, available at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77jrrxxn07o accessed on December 12, 2024.

[vi] Bayan Kayali and Yususf Can, Reactions from MENA Governments on the Fall of the Assad Regime, Wilson Centre, December 13, 2024, available at https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/reactions-mena-governments-fall-assad-regime accessed on December 12, 2024.