Skip to Main Content
हिंदी में
ASEAN with Malaysia at the Helm and 2025
Malaysia assuming the rotational chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on 1 January 2025 at the outset would seem to be a procedural one. However, certain developments preceding the changing of the guard from Laos to Malaysia are noteworthy, which can bring a new degree of dynamism to this regional forum. With the theme for 2025 being “Inclusivity and Sustainability”, the Malaysian chairmanship of ASEAN had already set a high benchmark for itself.
Inclusivity and Sustainability
On the eve of assuming the chairmanship of ASEAN, Malaysia issued a logo (see Picture I) and a six-point agenda under MADANI—sustainability, care and compassion, respect, innovation, prosperity and trust—as the founding vision of the new Chair.[i]
Since October 2023, the MADANI, or SCRIPT, an acronym of the incumbent government under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, has been incorporated within the ASEAN framework. Malaysia’s MADANI is a new economic outlook that aims to transform Malaysia’s overall economy and society, which also subsumes other policy initiatives of Kuala Lumpur under it.
Picture I: ASEAN Logo for 2025
For Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s government, MADANI is not seen as an instrument that serves only Malaysia but also the region and ASEAN. According to the Malaysian Minister of Communications and Digital, Fahmi Fadzil, ASEAN MADANI can become a reality if the regional bloc of over 660 million people acts collectively to drive the growth of their respective countries.[ii]
For ASEAN, the SCRIPT—sustainability, care and compassion, respect, innovation, prosperity and trust will complement its Charter and the regional forum’s commitment to itself— “To unite under One Vision, One Identity and One Caring and Sharing Community”. Based on this commitment, the Southeast Asian region comprises the (i) Political-Security Community, (ii) Economic Community and (iii) the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community.
However, where SCRIPT come into play is in its six-point pillars as instruments that have the potential to realise the ASEAN Charter on the ground. This is so because this regional bloc’s member states are quite diverse in all aspects, especially when the individual profiles of the members are compared with one another. With Malaysia already implementing MADANI at home, the same can act as a litmus test for others in the neighbourhood to emulate.
Will ASEAN expand in 2025?
One issue that would be of immediate interest within ASEAN would be the accession of Timor-Leste into this regional bloc. Timor-Leste, a regional micro-state, has been seeking ASEAN membership since its independence in 2002 from Indonesia. However, it was not till November 2022 that the regional bloc agreed “in principle” to admit this microstate as an observer, the first step in a long process before becoming a full member. And it was not until the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summit held in Vientiane, Laos in October 2024 that Timor participated officially as an observer in the highest platform of the forum.
It was in this context that the President of Timor Leste Ramos-Horta, in September 2024, said that his country’s desire forASEAN membership would become a reality in 2025 when Malaysia takes over as the Chair.[iii] This note of optimism is not ill-founded as the formal process of joining ASEAN, which began in November 2007,could be heading to its logical conclusion during the course of this year. However, there are some roadblocks. Among the few reasons that act as stumbling blocks is the scepticism over Timor Leste, as a microstate,honouring its commitments towards the bloc.
With a multitude of engagementsin a year, which is supposed to be on par with the United Nations in terms of frequency,[iv]concerns over this microstate’s ability to participate in all have been raised. What makes the issue a disconcerting fact is that Dili’s nominal GDP stands at $2 billion,which is a sixth of Laos, currently the smallest economy in ASEAN, with a nominal GDP of $15 billion.[v] Additionally, given the expanded nature of ASEAN, Dili would have to sign a minimum of 66 ASEAN agreements, which is expected to be a time-consuming process.[vi]
The third concern would be the fact that ASEAN works on consensus, and thus, including Dili as the eleventh member of this blocneeds the support of all, including Myanmar.Developments in Myanmar have been a concern for ASEAN since the February 2021 coup.Neither theASEAN’s initiatives like its ‘Five Point Concusses’ (5PC) have yielded any desirable results for the regional grouping, nor has its decision to not entertain the junta-led government at a political level within ASEAN proceedings but limit the same to an official level implemented. Despite this position of ASEAN, some of the member states have reached out, but to no avail.
Another issue is political optics. The inclusion of Dili, with its limited social and economic capital, can delay, if not derail, the inherited cohesion and decision-making process as well as the bloc’s ambitious socio-economic commitment towards its existing members. Not including Dili could leave a blind spot in Southeast Asia that can accentuate the geopolitical contestation in this part of Southeast Asia. This hence leaves the leaders of ASEAN in a Catch-22 situation, which can only be addressed by the leaders making a political decision and not a policy one.
However, the prospects of a political decision by the leaders of ASEAN on Timor Leste is a delicate questiongiven the geopoliticalequation in this theatre of the Indo-Pacific region. For example, Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão of Timor Leste in September 2023 expressed his anguish with respect to the state of affairs in Myanmar. He had gone to the extent of saying that “Timor-Leste will not be joining the ASEAN if ASEAN cannot convince the military junta in Myanmar [to end the conflict]”.[vii]This, statement of Prime Minster Xanana Gusmão is a reflection of the inherent points of divergence in the Southeast Asian region that are being played out both within and beyond the ASEAN mechanism.
A Council of Elders!
It may be for these reasons that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim broke from ASEAN tradition and appointed informal advisers to his country’s chairmanship. Apart from the former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose advisor role is certain, others like former foreign ministers of Singapore, George Yeo, and Indonesia’s Retno Marsudi are also expected to be included in this informal advisory body outside the ASEAN structure. It has also been speculated that the former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen may join this group of elders.[viii]
While the role of this group of elders is uncertain, it can be speculated that Anwar Ibrahim would be leaning on this cohort’s collective experience and wisdom to navigate the turbulent waters that lay ahead for ASEAN and hence for his country’s chairmanship of the regional bloc. The headwinds that lay ahead are not only limited to Myanmar but to other issues like the overall bleak economic prospects of the region since the COVID-19 pandemic, the unsolved maritime territorial dispute in the South China Sea, as well as the uncertain nature of global geopolitics and strategic contestation, including in the Indo-Pacific region.
It is in this context that the 2025 theme of Inclusivity and Sustainability, as well as MADANI,is to be seen. The moot question is how far Malaysia can marry the guiding principles of the chairman- sustainability, care, compassionand respect with thereal politick outlook of countries pursuing their individual interests. This is in light of the fact that Southeast Asia and the greater region around it are now becoming the epicentre of competitive global economics and politics, and the resulting contestation is to be seen.
And there lies the challenge for the proposed Council of Elders. Will they hold the ASEAN flock and provide considered guidance together despite all internal infractions while engaging with the other, especially in the turbulent times that the world seems to be heading towards?
*****
*Dr. Sripathi Narayanan, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] ASEAN Chairmanship 2025 – Malaysia, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, December 31, 2024
https://asean.org/asean-chairmanship-2025-malaysia/, accessed on January 8, 2025.
[ii]‘Malaysia Madani’ Concept Can Be Expanded To Asean Level – Fahmi, Ministry Of Communications, Government of Malaysia, February 2, 2023, https://www.komunikasi.gov.my/en/public/news/23485-malaysia-madani-concept-can-be-expanded-to-asean-level-fahmi, accessed on January 8, 2025.
[iii]Anwar Sends Warm Birthday Wishes to Ramos-Horta, Bernama, December 27, 2024, https://bernama.com/en/general/news.php?id=2377229, accessed on January 8, 2025.
[iv]Anticipating Malaysia's Asean chair, Bangkok Post, October 29, 2024, https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2891957/anticipating-malaysias-asean-chair, accessed on January 8, 2025.
[v] World Economic Outlook database: October 2024
[vi]S’pore helping Timor-Leste prepare for full Asean membership: PM Lee, Straits Times, November 21, 2024,https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/s-pore-helping-timor-leste-prepare-for-full-asean-membership-pm-lee, accessed on January 8, 2025.
[vii]Timor-Leste rethinks its accession bid if ASEAN cannot handle Myanmar issue, The Jakarta Post, August 7, 2023, https://www.thejakartapost.com/paper/2023/08/07/timor-leste-rethinks-its-accession-bid-if-asean-cannot-handle-myanmar-issue.html, accessed on January 8, 2025.
[viii]Malaysia's Asean chair with a twist, Bangkok Post, December 24, 2024, https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2925877/malaysias-asean-chair-with-a-twist, accessed on January 8, 2025.
