On September 29, 2021, former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida defeated Taro Kono, the Minister of Administrative Reform in the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) election to select its President. Considering LDP majority in the Japanese Diet, Kishida will replace the outgoing Yoshihide Suga to become the 100thPrime Minister (PM) of Japan.
In the first round of the election in which both LDP Diet members and party workers voted, Kishida came on top with one vote more than Kono, while SanaeTakaichiand Seiko Noda came third and fourth.[1]As no candidate could get a clear majority in the first round, the contest went into a run-off between Kishida and Kono, during which the former secured a clear victory.
DespiteKono’s popularity among the public and party’s rank and file members as reflected both in public opinion surveys[2] and the first round of the election, he failed to secure support from the party’s lawmakers. It was clear before the election that if the contest were to move into the run-off round it would work in favour of Kishida. A day before the election, Kishida and Takaichi camp agreed to cooperate if the election were to go into the run-off round.[3]
Kishida’s victory had some help from Takaichi’s performance in the first round winning more votes of parliamentarian than Kono, who remained in the 80-vote range, which was lower than expected. She also secured significant party members votes too. In hindsight, it appears that the role played by former PM Shinzo Abe, who is known for his genius in election strategies, was significant. Takaichi, with Abe’s support managed to get significant votes in the first round dispersing the votes of Kono that ensured the contest to move into the next round.[4] It indicates that Abe still holds significant sway in the party and will continue to be influential in the shaping of the Kishida administration.
LDP Presidential Election Results[5]
Candidates |
Round 1
|
Run-Off |
||||
|
LDP Lawmakers
|
LDP Party Members |
Total |
LDP Law Makers |
Party Prefecture Vote |
Total |
Fumio Kishida |
146 |
110 |
256 |
249 |
8 |
257 |
Taro Kono
|
86 |
169 |
255 |
131 |
39 |
170 |
Sane Taikaichi |
114 |
74 |
188 |
|
|
|
Seiko Noda
|
34 |
29 |
63 |
|
|
|
The victory of Kishida suggests LDP’s emphasis on continuity and stability than radical change. Kono, though more popular,has not been the favourite of the party’s old guards because of his maverick political attitude. During his election campaign, Kono articulated a policy direction that could overturn the basis of the current system, such as a pension reform and a review of the nuclear fuel cycle policy. On the other hand, Kishida, who called for stability and continuity without directly challenging the direction set by the ‘Abe/Suga administrations’ over the last decade while making partial corrections had the backing of party elders.
Kishida, who used to call himself a ‘dove’ and also heads an LDP faction which is known to maintain a moderate position, however, turned out to be a realist and pragmatist as he approached the election. By taking a hard-line position especially on China and calling to start a discussion on amending the constitution, he managed to secure the support of party hardliners. In the past, Kishida has not openly supported the revision of the constitution. Kono, on the other hand, is known for asking uncomfortable questions on issues including the Japan-US alliance, his position to support LGBT rights and separate surname for married couples is considered ‘too’ reformist for the LDP’s hard-line conservatives.
The election result is also is indicative of the staying power of traditional factional politics in LDP. Before the election, it was widely anticipated that a generational change was becoming a movement through the party’s young and new lawmakers calling for free voting in the presidential election breaking the tradition of following the instructions of faction leaders loyally. If it would have gained momentum, the change would have been favourable to Kono who is popular among the new generation lawmakers, however, the election result proved otherwise. Apart from his own faction, the other two factions out of the major five- Takeshita faction and Hosoda faction threw their weight around Kishida in the second round of the election.
Kishida, who is a third-generation politician born into a political dynasty, has enormous political and policy experience under his belt serving nine terms as a legislator. Before entering into politics in 1993, Kishida worked in the banking sector and then as a secretary to his lawmaker father, who was also treasurer of LDP at the time of his death. Kishida entered politics together with Abe, has served as Minister for Okinawa Affairs during the first Abe administration in 2006 and as Foreign Minister in the second Abe administration since 2012. After serving as Japan’s longest Foreign Minister Kishida made his move into the party administration by becoming the Chairman of LDP’s Policy Council in 2017. However, Kishida was out of power both in the party and the government since last year, following his unsuccessful challenge against Suga in the 2020 party presidential election.
The immediate task before PM Kishida, who was inaugurated on October 4 at a special Session of the Diet is to steer the party to maintain its current position in the Diet if not a supermajority in the upcoming general election, which is only a month away to seal position as party head and the PM for the next three years. Under Kishida, the policy direction of the Japanese government is unlikely to see a major change rather it will be a continuation of policy parameters set by Abe a decade ago. Kishida has been talking about a new form of Japanese capitalism, during his campaign highlighting the negative consequences of neoliberal policies that Japan has adopted since the mid-2000s. However, considering the shaky grounds in which the Japanese economy finding itself in the context of the COVID 19 pandemic, there is little choice for Kishida but to maintain massive fiscal and monetary support to help the fragile economy to stay afloat. In the long run, achieving his vision of finding a new face to Japanese capitalism by striking a balance between economic growth and income distribution by addressing the issue of widening inequality, he may attempt to shake the legacies of Abenomics.
As far as foreign policy is concerned, Kishida was at the helm of affairs as the top diplomat implementing the current course of Japanese strategy of strengthening alliance relationship with the US and proactive security role in the Indo-Pacific laid out during the second Abe administration. If one were to take Kishida’s election campaigns seriously, his foreign and defence policy stances have become more hawkish. For instance, he openly stressed the importance of the security of the Taiwan Strait for Japan’s national security, targeting China he announced that he will establish a post of human rights advisor to the PM and took a hard-line posture regarding Japan acquisition of first-strike capability.
As Japan would likely to stay the course on its current Indo-Pacific posture under PM Kishida, India-Japan relations too shall stay steady following the path forged by PM Modi and former PM Abe. Like Abe, Kishida also believes that the India-Japan partnership is special. While delivering the 15thSapru House Lecture at ICWA in 2015 in his capacity as the Japanese Foreign Minister, Kishida elaborated the special nature of the India-Japan partnership by emphasising that “leadership from both countries is essential for the Indo-Pacific region to foster an order supported by democratic values, open economy and the rule of law”.[6]
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*Dr. Jojin V. John, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
[1] In the presidential election candidate contested for 764 votes, including the votes of members of parliament (382 votes) and the votes of party rank and file members (382 votes). If no candidate gets a clear majority in the first round, the top two candidates had to compete the for 429 votes in the run off round- 382 votes for members of parliament and 1 vote for each of the 47 prefectures.
[2] "LDP race: Kono leads Kishida 46% to 17% in Nikkei poll", Nikkei Asia Review, September 26, 2021, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/LDP-race-Kono-leads-Kishida-46-to-17-in-Nikkei-poll, Accessed on September 29, 2021.
[3] "Mr. Kishida and Ms. Takaichi's camp agree with the cooperation of the final vote Liberal Democratic Party presidential election", Asahi Shimbun, September 29, 2021, https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASP9Y3QRDP9XUTFK00H.html, Accessed on September 29, 2021.
[4] "Kingmaker's gambit: Abe's maneuvers hand Kishida victory", Nikkei Asia Review, September 30, 2021, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-election/Kingmaker-s-gambit-Abe-s-maneuvers-hand-Kishida-victory, Accessed on September 29, 2021.
[5]. "Fumio Kishida candidate is elected as the new president", September 29, 2021, https://twitter.com/jimin_koho/status/1443094823829864449, Accessed on September 29, 2021.
[6] Fumio Kishida, “Special Partnership for the Era of the Indo-Pacific”, Fifteenth Sapru House Lecture, ICWA, 17 January 2015, https://icwa.in/WriteReadData/RTF1984/1955389862.pdf, Accessed on September 29, 2021.