The European Union–Western Balkans Summit (Brdo Summit) held on 6 October 2021, under the Presidency of Slovenia, reiterated the EU’s support towards the enlargement process and greater integration of the Western Balkans countries in the region. The EU has, time and again, reiterated its commitment to the region both politically and economically, emphasising the geostrategic importance of the region. The EU is the Western Balkan’s largest trading partner and investor accounting for almost 70% of the region’s total trade in 2019. All the six Western Balkan countries (Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo) have signed the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU and are at different stages of negotiations for accession. The paper looks at the EU enlargement process and the status of accession of the six nations. It also analyses the major roadblocks to the accession process.
EU Enlargement – Criteria and Process
The EU defined the criteria for the inclusion of new members in a meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark in 1993. The Copenhagen criteria included three conditions[i] to be fulfilled by the candidates – first, political criteria which included stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities; second, economic criteria which required a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces; and third, administrative and institutional capacity to effectively implement the Acquis[ii] and ability to take on the obligations of membership. The EU has also asserted that the process of enlargement must factor-in the bloc’s ‘capacity for absorption of new member, while maintaining the momentum of European integration’[iii] and that the bloc reserves the right to decide when the candidate has met the criteria and the Union was ready to accept the new member.
There are nine key steps for enlargement –
Step 1 |
Country submits an application to the Council |
Step 2 |
Commission submits an Opinion on the application |
Step 3 |
EU Member States decide unanimously to grant the country candidate status. |
Step 4 |
After conditions are met, the accession negotiations are opened with the agreement of all Member States. |
Step 5 |
Commission proposes a draft negotiating framework as a basis for the talks, which then needs to be agreed by the Member States. |
Step 6 |
During negotiations, which are structured according to clusters and chapters, the country prepares to implement EU laws and standards. All EU Member States must agree that all requirements are met in each case. |
Step 7 |
Once negotiations on all areas are finalised, Commission gives its Opinion on the readiness of the country to become a Member State. |
Step 8 |
Based on this Opinion, EU Member States decide unanimously to close the negotiation process. The European Parliament must also give its consent |
Step 9 |
All EU Member States and the candidate country sign and ratify an Accession Treaty which enables the country to become an EU Member State. |
The above stated steps are accompanied with a lengthy negotiation process during which the candidate country adopt and implement EU laws, regulations and treaties. Under the methodology for the accession negotiations adopted in February 2020, negotiating chapters are now divided into six thematic clusters – Fundamentals; Internal Market; Competitiveness & Inclusive Growth; Green Agenda & Sustainable Connectivity; Resources, Agriculture & Cohesion; and External Relations[iv]. In total, there are 35 subject-related chapters that are negotiated. Negotiations on each cluster begins as a whole and each chapter is dealt individually. Once the European Commission concludes negotiations on all chapters with an applicant, the agreements reached are incorporated into a draft accession treaty, which is then approved by the Council of the EU and the European Parliament. After the EU and the candidate country sign the accession treaty, each EU member state and the candidate country must ratify the treaty for the accession to be complete.
In the case for the Western Balkan countries, additional conditions for membership were set out in the Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP) in 1999 under which each country signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU. It is broadly aimed at stabilising these countries politically and encouraging their transition to a market economy; promoting regional cooperation; and eventual membership of the EU.
Status of Accession Process in Western Balkans
The EU has, time and again, reaffirmed its commitment to the membership of the Western Balkan nations. In its 2018 Communication on ‘A credible enlargement perspective for and enhanced EU engagement with the Western Balkans’, the EU called the prospects of the enlargement towards Western Balkans as “a geostrategic investment in a stable, strong and united Europe based on common values”.[v] All the six countries in the region have signed the SAP with the EU and are at different levels of the accession process. They can be divided in three groups – Accession talks in Progress (Montenegro and Serbia); Awaiting Accession Talks (Albania and North Macedonia); and Potential Candidates (Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo).
Map: Western Balkans
Source: The Economist, https://www.economist.com/europe/2014/09/27/in-the-queue
Following is a brief overview of the status of accession process -
Accession Talks in Progress
Montenegro concluded its Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU in 2007, applied for EU membership in 2008, and gained candidate status in 2010. The EU opened accession negotiations with Montenegro in 2012. So far, 33 accession negotiations chapters have been open, out of which three have been provisionally closed. In the 2021 report[vi] on Montenegro, EU highlighted several shortcomings, first, in political criteria, friction between the executive and legislative powers which has slowed down reform work. Second, in governance, there is a need to strengthen stakeholders' participation, and the government's capacity to implement reforms. Third, Montenegro remains moderately prepared to apply the EU acquis and European standards in the area of judiciary and fundamental rights and has made limited progress overall, with limited track record on accountability. No progress has been made in the judiciary and the implementation of key judicial reforms. Fourth, Montenegro has achieved some level of preparation in the fight against corruption. However, corruption remains prevalent in many areas. There is a need for strong political will to effectively address this issue, as well as a robust criminal justice response to high-level corruption.
Serbia signed the SAA in 2008, and applied for membership in 2009. It was granted the candidate status in 2012. Its accession talks began in 2014, 18 out of 35 chapters have been opened, while two chapters have been provisionally closed. The 2021 report[vii] of the European Commission noted “limited progress” in the areas of public administration reform, the judiciary, the fight against corruption and organised crime, and media pluralism. The report further notes that Serbia has yet to achieve effective investigations, prosecutions and final verdicts in serious organised crime cases. The Commission also highlighted that on foreign policy issues, some of Serbian actions were “contrary to the EU’s foreign policy positions”. The report reiterated that for normalisation of relations with Kosovo, a “comprehensive legally binding normalisation agreement is urgent and crucial so that Kosovo and Serbia can advance on their respective EU paths”. The Commission reiterated that the overall pace of negotiations will continue to depend in particular on the pace of rule of law reforms and on the normalisation of Serbia’s relations with Kosovo.
Awaiting Accession Talks
North Macedonia concluded its SAA with the EU in 2001, applied for membership in 2004, and became a candidate in 2005. Since 2009, the European Commission has routinely recommended opening accession negotiations. Two reasons that have stymied North Macedonia’s bid for membership are – first, Greece blocked the accession talks due to their long-standing dispute over the use of the name Macedonia. This issue was resolved in 2018 through Prespa Agreement, which entered into force in 2019. Under the Prespa Agreement, Greece pledged to lift its veto over Macedonia’s EU and NATO membership bids and the country agreed to change its constitutional name to North Macedonia. Second, Bulgaria (which joined the EU in 2007) disputes aspects of Macedonian national symbols, ethnic minorities and historical narratives. Bulgaria objects to the notion that the Macedonian language is separate from Bulgarian, insisting it is a “dialect”. Sofia also wants Skopje to recognise the “Bulgarian origins” of the Macedonian nation. Therefore, Bulgaria has maintained its veto on the beginning of the accession talks with North Macedonia[viii]. In its 2021 progress report for North Macedonia[ix], the European Commission asserted the country has continued to maintain a steady and determined pace in advancing EU reforms, focusing on the fundamentals and that the delays in the official launch of accession negotiations are having a negative impact on the credibility of the EU.
Albania signed its SAA in 2006 and applied for the EU membership in 2009. The EU declared Albania as a candidate state in 2014, giving approval to the opening of accession negotiation in 2020 after it ascertained that enough progress was made in certain key areas like judicial reforms, corruption and organised crime.[x] In the 2021 progress report, the European Commission noted that the country continues to meet the criteria for the start of the accession talks. It stressed that Albania has achieved “sustainable” and “tangible” results, especially in the judiciary reforms, strengthening the fight against corruption and organised crime.[xi] Despite the progress made by Albania in meeting its criteria for the start of the accession talks, its bid remains deadlocked due to the Bulgarian veto of North Macedonia, as the two countries’ bids are linked and launching accession talks requires unanimous approval from all 27 EU nations. Albanian accession talks are linked to North Macedonia as both are EU candidates at similar stages of the accession process and as Brussels have been considering both applications together, EU wants to begin the process with Albania and North Macedonia at the same time[xii]. While Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi said in May 2021 that “Brussels could potentially press ahead with talks with Albania over membership of the EU even as negotiations with North Macedonia stall”[xiii], however, EU High Representative Josep Borrell said that “EU membership talks with Albania and North Macedonia cannot be decoupled”[xiv]. In September 2021, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama called the situation “absurd” noting that this is holding up Albania.[xv]
Potential Candidates
Bosnia and Herzegovina concluded an SAA with the EU in 2008, which entered into force in 2015. Bosnia submitted its application for EU membership in 2016. In May 2019, the European Commission laid out 14 key priorities for Bosnia which covers the areas like democracy/functionality, the rule of law, fundamental rights, and public administration reform. In its 2021 assessment report, EU noted that “while some steps have been taken, strategic goal of European integration has not been turned into concrete action, as political leaders continued to engage in divisive rhetoric and unconstructive political disputes, which have hindered progress on the 14 key priorities so far”[xvi]. It concluded that “Bosnia is overall at an early stage of preparation regarding its level of preparedness and ability to take on the obligations of EU membership and needs to significantly step up the alignment with the EU acquis and implement and enforce the relevant legislation. Limited to no progress was made on the different EU acquis chapters.”[xvii]
Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008. Of the EU 27, five member states (Slovakia, Romania, Greece, Cyprus and Spain) do not, at present, recognise Kosovo as an independent country. Despite this, the EU signed a SAA with Kosovo because the agreement is an EU-only agreement, which Member States do not need to ratify[xviii]. The EU-Kosovo SAA has been in force since April 2016, and they have also signed the European Reform Agenda in 2016 which set out the key priorities to guide EU-related reforms. In its 2021 report, the European Commission noted that “Kosovo needs to improve its administrative capacity and coordination, across all sectors, to achieve effective implementation of the EU acquis”[xix]. It described limited progress in some areas, largely due to political volatility in the country.
Roadblocks in Accession
Despite the continued EU’s commitment to the enlargement, the process for the Western Balkans has not moved forward. One of the primary reasons is that the support for further enlargement has faded within many EU countries. According to a Euro Barometer poll of Spring 2021, member states like Germany (57%), Belgium (66%), Austria (61%), France (56%), the Netherlands (67%), Finland (71%) etc. do not favour enlargement, while, countries like Italy (51%), Spain (67%), Poland (62%) etc. support further enlargement.[xx] While the support for EU membership in the Western Balkans has increased to 62% of citizens endorsing it as compared to 59% in 2020, the expectations of Western Balkans for EU integration have dissipated notably, with 22% believing that it will never happen, as compared to 20% in 2019.[xxi] This enlargement fatigue in the EU has been furthered by the following reasons -
First is migration – As migration remains one of the most debated topics in the EU, there have been concerns regarding the expansion of the Union to include new members. The main concerns stem from the fact these countries have relatively weaker economies which could further increase the influx of migrants to the EU. Second is the impact on EU policy-making. A key concern remains that the expansion would weaken the ability of the Union to set its agenda and complicate decision-making. As the enlargement further diversifies the EU with different member states bringing different interests and policy preferences, it would become difficult to reach at a consensus on a range of issues such as energy policy, policy approach towards Russia and China, migration, transatlantic relations etc.
Third are the issues within the EU - The EU, in itself, is facing an array of external and internal issues emanating from the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting economic slowdown. In a recent survey by Euro Barometer, economic situation (27% of votes) and immigration (25%) were voted as the most important issue facing the EU internally.[xxii] Externally, it is occupied with a resurgent Russia, navigating its relations with China, and crisis in Afghanistan. Fourth, are the Issues within Balkan states. While the yearly reports have noted some improvement in the Western Balkan countries, governance issues, corruption and organised crime continue to be the roadblocks for accession.[xxiii] In the 2018 report, the European Commission noted that the countries “show clear elements of state capture, including links with organized crime and corruption at all levels of government and administration, as well as a strong entanglement of public and private interests.”[xxiv] While the EU’s 2020 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy asserted that the fight against corruption had “slowed down and the track record in most countries is far from meeting the requirements for membership.”[xxv]
Conclusion
The EU is the largest source of external assistance to the region and is also the largest trade partner accounting for over 69.4% of the region’s total trade in 2019. In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI), EU accounted for approximately 65.5% of total FDI in the region in 2018.[xxvi] Under the aegis of its “Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans” released in October 2020, the EU aims to assist the region’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The package includes a new Western Balkans Guarantee facility which intends to mobilise up to €20 billion ($24.2 billion) in investments over the next decade[xxvii]. In addition, the EU, in September 2021 agreed to €14.2 billion ($17.2 billion)[xxviii] in pre-accession assistance under the 2021-2027 budget framework.
While the EU is an active partner in the region, its enlargement strategy appears to be facing multiple challenges. The communiqué released after the Brdo Summit 2021 stated that the EU reaffirms its “unequivocal support for the European perspective of the Western Balkans”. However, no specific deadline or time limit was set for the process of enlargement for Serbia and Montenegro. Also, the communique failed to address any breakthrough or a way forward for any compromise from Bulgaria to break the deadlock regarding the beginning of accession talks with North Macedonia and attached with it for Albania. For the EU, enlargement remains necessary to promote stability in the Western Balkans. Despite its commitment to the Western Balkans, it remains a long-road for the EU membership for these countries as they try to meet and implement the political and economic criteria for membership.
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*Dr. Ankita Dutta, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal
Endnotes
[i]Accession Criteria, European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/enlargement-policy/glossary/accession-criteria_en, Accessed on 21 October 2021
[ii] The acquis is the body of common rights and obligations that is binding on all the EU member states.
[iii]Ibid.
[iv]‘EU Accession Process Clusters’, European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/system/files/2021-10/eu_accession_process_clusters.pdf, Accessed on 21 October 2021
[v]‘A credible enlargement perspective for and enhanced EU engagement with the Western
Balkans’, European Commission, 2018, https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/communication-credible-enlargement-perspective-western-balkans_en.pdf, Accessed on 22 October 2021
[vi]‘Montenegro 2021 Report’, Commission Staff Working Document, European Commission, Strasbourg, 2021
[vii]‘Serbia 2021 Report’, Commission Staff Working Document, European Commission, Strasbourg, 2021
[viii]Euractiv, 23 June 2021, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/bulgaria-maintains-its-north-macedonia-veto/, Accessed on 25 October 2021
[ix]‘North Macedonia 2021 Report’, Commission Staff Working Document, European Commission, Strasbourg, 2021
[x]‘Albania’, European Council, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/enlargement/albania/#, Accessed on 25 October 2021
[xi]‘Albania 2021 Report’, Commission Staff Working Document, European Commission, Strasbourg, 2021
[xii]RFE/Rl, 28 September 2021, https://www.rferl.org/a/macedonia-albania-eu-accession/31482691.html, Accessed on 1 November 2021
[xiii] Euronews, 7 May 2021, https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/07/albania-could-begin-eu-membership-talks-without-north-macedonia, Accessed on 1 November 2021
[xiv] Euronews, 10 May 2021, https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/10/albania-and-north-macedonia-s-eu-membership-bids-must-go-ahead-together-says-josep-borrell, Accessed on 1 November 2021
[xv]AP News, 28 September 2021, https://apnews.com/article/business-albania-bulgaria-ursula-von-der-leyen-european-union-697b5801cc9f6aba9db2b6b58914a1de, Accessed on 25 October 2021
[xvi]‘Bosnia and Herzegovina 2021 Report’, Commission Staff Working Document, European Commission, Strasbourg, 2021
[xvii]Ibid.
[xviii] Western Balkans Factsheet, European Parliament, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/168/the-western-balkans, Accessed on 1 November 2021
[xix]‘Kosovo 2021 Report’, Commission Staff Working Document, European Commission, Strasbourg, 2021
[xx]‘Public Opinion in the EU’, Standard Eurobarometer 95, European Commission, Spring 2021
[xxi]‘BalkanBarometer2021’, Regional Cooperation Council, June 2021
[xxii]‘Eurobarometer: Optimism about the future of the EU at its highest since 2009’, Press Corner, European Commission, 10 September 2021,https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_4610, Accessed on 26 October 2021
[xxiii]Euronews, 6 October 2021,https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/06/eu-commits-9-billion-to-western-balkans-but-political-divisions-over-enlargement-persist, Accessed on 26 October 2021
[xxiv]European Commission, n.4
[xxv]‘Commission assesses and sets out reform priorities for the countries aiming to join the EU’, Press Corner, European Commission, 6 October 2020,https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1816, Accessed on 26 October 2021
[xxvi]‘Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans’, European Commission, October 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/system/files/2020-10/communication_on_wb_economic_and_investment_plan_october_2020_en.pdf, Accessed on 26 October 2021
[xxvii] Ibid.
[xxviii]‘Press Corner’, European Commission, 14 September 2021, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_4730, Accessed on 26 October 2021