In the Japanese general election held on 31 October 2021, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito emerged victorious. Although they received 12 seats less than their pre-election tally of 305 seats, the coalition managed to maintain their 'absolute stable majority in the Diet. By winning 261 seats, LDP surprised poll watchers. It was expected to lose a significant number of seats on account of the anti-incumbency sentiments, especially the government's management of the COVID-19 pandemic.[1] During the campaign, the newly elected leader of LDP, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, kept the coalition's expectations low by aiming to achieve a simple majority.[2]
With 261 seats in the Diet, LDP will form a stable government and be in a position to deal with pressure from its coalition partner where they have divergences on policy issues. 261 is considered a magic number in the Japanese parliamentary context, the strength required for a party or ruling coalition to form a 'stable majority' for the smooth functioning of the government, as it allows the ruling party to occupy all the chairs of the parliamentary standing committee and fill their members.
Fig 1: Diet-Lower House Membership- After Election[3]
Fig 2: Diet-Lower House Membership- Pre-Election
The leadership change from Yoshihide Suga to Kishida ahead of the election was a significant factor for LDP's electoral success. Kishida as the party's face helped LDP balance out public disapproval acquired during the Suga period mainly because of the administration's COVID response. Secondly, the significant reduction of COVID cases during the month preceding the election also helped the ruling coalition recover its image. While these factors helped the ruling coalition from losing significant seats, the election reflected Japanese voters' preference for stability and status quo and their faith in LDP's ability to deliver a stable government, especially when the country faces much uncertainty.
Fragile State of the Opposition
The election results were disappointing for the Japanese opposition parties, who sought to capitalise on the high disapproval rating of the LDP since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. In an attempt to avoid vote splitting among anti-LDP forces, the main opposition party- Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) made a tactical alliance with other opposition parties, including Japan Communist Party (JCP), Reiwa Shinsengumi and the Social Democratic Party, and managed to put up unified opposition candidate against the ruling coalition in as many as 213 or 75 per cent, of all 289 single electoral districts.[4] However, 139 of these seats were won by a ruling coalition, while unified opposition candidates were victorious only in 59. The remainder went to the right-leaning Nippon Ishin no Kai and independent candidates. Overall, CDP finished with 96 seats, down from 110 before the election, JCP won 10 seats, Reiwa received 3 and SDP won only one seat.[5]
While the CDP leadership saw the unified front as a good election strategy to challenge the LDP, it distanced many of CDP's traditional supporters, including the Rengō, the federation of the Japanese Trade Union, mainly on account of ideological and policy divergence between CDP and the JCP.[6] The low turnout of voters has also been a factor in the dismal performance of the opposition. With 56 per cent voting, the election was the third lowest in the post-War Japanese election history. Taking responsibility for the defeat, CDP leader Yukio Edano and his deputy Tetsuro Fukuyama have resigned.[7]
Another important feature of the election has been the rise of the Osaka based right-wing regional party Nippon Ishin No Kai to become the third-largest party in the lower house of the Diet. Ishin quadrupled its legislative position by winning 41 seats compared to 11 seats in the previous election. The quick response to COVID-19 of the Ishin-led provincial government of Osaka has been a significant factor for the rise of the party's growing popularity among electorates winning all most all seats in the western prefecture of Osaka. It is also reflective of voters' attempts to back a third force other than LDP and the CDP.[8] It will be interesting to watch the role that the Ishin will play in the Diet going forward, given the convergence between LDP and Ishin on constitutional amendment and defence and national security.
Another important feature of the election was the defeat of several heavyweight veteran politicians. Though the trend was seen across parties, the ones that got much attention were from LDP, including Akira Amari, the party's Director-General. Even though Amari, who faces allegations of taking bribes, was elected to the lower house through the party's proportional representation list, it was the first time that the sitting No.2 of LDP has been defeated in an election. Following his defeat, Amari resigned from his position of General Secretary and was replaced by Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi. Other LDP heavyweights who lost their home seats are Nobuteru Ishihara- former Minister and LDP General Secretary and currently the head of a minor faction LDP faction, Takeshi Noda-a a longtime party stalwart, who contested against Kishida recently for Party leadership position. Those who lost in the opposition camp include Ichirō Ozawa, who is often dubbed as 'Shadow Shōgun' due to his backroom political influence and Kiyomi Tsujimoto, deputy leader of CDP.
Kishida Administration: Way Ahead
The ruling coalition's success in the general election is a significant victory for Prime Minister Kishida, who assumed party leadership a month before the election following the resignation of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. With Kishida consolidating his position within the party, the pre-election apprehension that Japan could return to a phase of revolving-door prime ministers is ruled out. The next test before Kishida is the upper house election scheduled in the summer of 2022. Unlike this time, the administration's performance will be up for public scrutiny.
The electoral victory will also provide a solid foundation for the Kishida administration to implement its policy agenda. The administration's immediate priority will be to avoid another wave of the COVID pandemic and oversee the economic recovery. To facilitate the economic recovery, Kishida had pledged to deliver a big stimulus package. The only issue area that the Kishida administration appeared to be diverging from the previous Abe/Suga Cabinets is the economic policy. Kishida's call for 'new Japanese capitalism' with equal emphasis on both economic growth and wealth redistribution.[9] In spirit, the new policy attempts to correct the negative consequences of the neo-liberal agenda implemented under Abenomics. Apart from the rhetoric, such an overhaul of the economic policy is easier said than done. Also, mindful of the upper house election in the summer, the new administration would likely delay debate on pressing yet unpopular issues, like constitutional amendment, increasing defence spending, first-strike capability.
*****
* Dr. Jojin V. John is a research fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs.
Disclaimer: Views are personal
[1] "Yomiuri survey: LDP may struggle to win single-party majority in general election", The Japan News, October 21, 2021, https://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0007901240, Accessed on November 8, 2021
[2] "Polls suggest Japan's ruling bloc will cling to election majority", Reuters, October 21, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-ruling-bloc-seen-cling-majority-oct-31-election-2021-10-21/, Accessed on November 8, 2021
[3] “"House of Representatives election 2021", Nikkei, https://www.nikkei.com/special/shuin2021, Accessed on November 8, 2021
[4] "Unified election strategy fails to pay off for opposition bloc", Asahi Shimbun, November 1, 2021, https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14472936, Accessed on November 8, 2021
[5] "General Election 2021 Live Updates", Japan Times, November 1, 2021, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/election-2021-live-updates/, Accessed on November 8, 2021
[6] "CDP struggled in election despite joint opposition parties pact", Asahi Shimbun, November 1, 2021, https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14473021, Accessed on November 8, 2021
[7] "Japan's opposition CDP leader to resign after election loss", Nikkei Asia Review, November 2, 2021, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-s-opposition-CDP-leader-to-resign-after-election-loss, Accessed on November 8, 2021
[8] "Swing voters key to Ishin nearly quadrupling seats", The Japan News, November 1, 2021, https://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0007941312, Accessed on November 8, 2021
[9] Daisuke Akimoto and Larissa Stünkel, "What Is Kishidanomics?", The Diplomat, October 14, 2021, https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/what-is-kishidanomics/, Accessed on November 8, 2021