Rifts continue to remain in the Sino-United States (US) relations with the latter increasingly identifying China as a strategic competitor, and China viewing the United States as a hegemonic power that is ‘building barriers’. Given the fact that President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping have met each other during the Obama Administration years, it was hoped that relations would improve after the U.S. elections. However, there has been limited progress. The recent virtual conversation between President Biden and President Xi being only the second time the two leaders have spoken, since President Biden’s inaugural. The lack of communication is a measure of the rising tensions between the two nations, as they seek to manoeuvre to limit the global influence of the other while realising that they also need to work together on issues of mutual interest such as climate change, pandemic control and economic recovery.
While the talks may not have led to a statement, they are nonetheless, being viewed as a step towards re-establishing communication. The talk between the two leaders comes at a time when tensions are rising on the Taiwan, South China Sea, the Indo-Pacific issues and comes a few months after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
This paper identifies three areas where cooperation is desirable both for bilateral relations between the US and China, as well for international stability especially as the international community continues to battle the pandemic.
China-The United States: Cooperation in the Midst of Rivalry
Rivalry between the United States and China have become a paradigm of international relations and shapes strategic discourse and impacts political, military and economic relations. As bilateral competition between the United States and China intensifies, it becomes important to continue to maintain channels of communication to manage the relationship. Communication between the two nations is also important for international stability as ‘the U.S. and China are likely to continue amassing disproportionate weight in the international system going forward.’[i]
Climate change- The United States-China cooperation on climate change has largely helped set the direction of global action. In 2014, a year before the Paris Agreement, the two nations pledged to take actions. Other nations have since followed on the approach to pledge their commitments to address the climate crisis. As two of the world’s largest polluters, cooperation between them would be key to addressing the climate crisis and help global efforts to curb climate change. They released Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s on 10 November 2021. The declaration highlighted the intention of the two nations to “...work individually, jointly, and with other countries ...in accordance with different national circumstances, to strengthen and accelerate climate action and cooperation aimed at closing the gap, including accelerating the green and low-carbon transition and climate technology innovation.”[ii] It further highlighted the areas of cooperation regulatory frameworks and environmental standards related to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the 2020s, energy efficiency policies and standards to reduce electricity waste, policies that support the effective integration of high shares of low-cost intermittent renewable energy etc. The two sides also intend to establish a “Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s,” which will meet regularly to address the climate crisis and advance the multilateral process, focusing on enhancing concrete actions in this decade.[iii] This may include, inter alia, continued policy and technical exchanges, identification of programs and projects in areas of mutual interest, meetings of governmental and non-governmental experts, facilitating participation by local governments, enterprises, think tanks, academics, and other experts, exchanging updates on their respective national efforts, considering the need for additional efforts, and reviewing the implementation of the Joint Statement and this Joint Declaration.[iv]In 2014, a bilateral climate announcement from President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping was not only an important symbolic gesture that the world’s two largest carbon polluters were willing to work together towards a new treaty, it also kicked off a substantive programme of joint technical work on clean energy cooperation and more. However, the current Declaration is not substantive or clear on how the plans outlined would be achieved. Nonetheless, the Declaration does provide hope of a joint leadership by the two nations at a time when negotiations on economic and security issues have faced setbacks. The United States and China need to continue to cooperate with each other and other countries to tackle the climate crisis.
Economic Ties: The ongoing trade war with China is viewed as one of ‘strategic competition’ (emphasis added) by the United States.[v]On the other hand China has responded by urging for more openness and called on nations not to close their doors on each other. Despite the differences, trade and investment ties remain significant, even as both countries continue to take steps to limit vulnerabilities from the other. This has amplified since the Covid-19 pandemic which has pushed international economies to relook the stability of their supply chains.
Both the United States and China have sought to diversify their economic supply chains especially in areas which have national security implications such as sensitive technologies, AI and communication technologies etc. The United States has also put in place restrictions based on human right violations especially with respect to manufacturing units in some parts of China. ‘Even so, U.S.-China trade and investment ties remain robust. In 2020, China was America’s largest goods trading partner, third largest export market, and largest source of imports. Exports to China supported an estimated 1.2 million jobs in the United States in 2019. Most U.S. companies operating in China report, being committed to the China market for the long term. US investments have also been growing in China. The Rhodium Group estimated that U.S. investors held $1.1 trillion in equities issued by Chinese companies, and that there was as much as $3.3 trillion in U.S.-China two-way equity and bond holdings at the end of 2020. One leg of the U.S.-China economic relationship that has atrophied in recent years has been China’s flow of investment into the United States. This has largely been a product of tightened capital controls in China, growing Chinese government scrutiny of its companies’ offshore investments, and enhanced U.S. screening of Chinese investments for national security concerns’[vi].
However, as relations continue to be in turmoil under the Biden presidency, there is wide-spread concern regarding the global impact of US-China dynamics. Increased tariffs impact global economic investment and expansion plans. In the current situation it will also impact the post pandemic recovery. It will cause global disruption to supply chains as companies across the world look to reroute for onshore processes currently completed abroad. It will also impact investment plans as companies scale back due to disruptions caused by the ongoing health crisis. The Covid-19 pandemic has further led to economic slowdown and a loss of jobs and emerging variants of the virus have put the optimist outlook for economic recovery in 2022 on hold. The international community needs to work towards building sustainable, long-term plan for accelerated economic integration and development plans that provides inclusive growth and development for all.
Post-Pandemic Recovery- It needs to be pointed that post-pandemic recovery is not limited to just economic recovery. It would also include cooperation on vaccine distribution and development of health infrastructure.
The virus was first detected in China and the United States has suffered one of the highest infection and death rates. As the pandemic ends its second year with new variants emerging around the world, there is a need to bring the pandemic under control. This can be achieved through global cooperation, which would also require the active participation of the two largest economies of the world. It has been accepted by the scientific community that the most effective way to fight the Covid-19 virus is by vaccination. It is in the self-interest of nations to help vaccinate people across the world. The two nations have the capacity to produce vaccines and also distribute them. China’s outreach through its medical diplomacy has developed as the crisis has engulfed the world, extending as it has as far afield as Europe, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, the South Pacific, South East Asia and South Asia. All of these factors require that the two leading vaccine manufacturing countries better coordinate to enhance production capacity and prioritise the global regions to which doses should be directed. They could also support the equitable distribution of vaccines through the COVAX programme of the WHO[vii]
The two countries also need to cooperate to understand the virus to prevent future pandemics and help build coordination to tackle other global health crisis such as HIV/AIDS, SARS, Ebola and various forms of influenza. COVID-19 will not be the last pandemic nor the last global crisis, and the U.S. and China can use this opportunity to build confidence and capacity for addressing other challenges.
Conclusion
A key challenge for the post Trump United States is regaining the support of its allies and partners. It would have to show that it has the potential to lead and protect its interests when in a competition with China. However, it has to also realise that it no longer has the capacity to provide support to the developing countries as it did in the past. An emphasis on security has handicapped developmental and humanitarian assistance. In areas where the United States and China have complimentary interests; they can cooperate for optimal impact. In this one finds that cooperation on climate change has proved to be the most fruitful in the midst of this rivalry. China is a powerful nation, engaged economically, political and militarily with the world, whose ‘rise’ will have to be managed by key countries of the world with the United States in the lead.
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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i]Ryan Hass, “The New Normal in US-China Relations: Hardening Competition and Deep Interdependence,” https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/08/12/the-new-normal-in-us-china-relations-hardening-competition-and-deep-interdependence/, Accessed on 26 November 2021.
[ii] Office of the spokesperson, US Department of State, “U.S.-China Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s,” 10 Nov. 2021, https://www.state.gov/u-s-china-joint-glasgow-declaration-on-enhancing-climate-action-in-the-2020s/, Accessed on 02 December 2021.
[iii] Ibid
[iv]Ibid
[v]US Department of State, “U.S. Relations with China,” https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-china/, Accessed on 29 November 2021
[vi] Ryan Hass, “The New Normal in US-China Relations: Hardening Competition and Deep Interdependence,” https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/08/12/the-new-normal-in-us-china-relations-hardening-competition-and-deep-interdependence/, Accessed on 26 November 2021
[vii]Cheng Li and Ryan McElveen, “10 reasons the US and China should cooperate now to stop the pandemic,” Brookings 02 March 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/03/02/10-reasons-the-us-and-china-should-cooperate-now-to-stop-the-pandemic/, Accessed on 01 December 2021