Russian President Vladimir Putin displayed a delicate diplomatic balancing in December 2021. First, he visited India for the 21st India-Russia Summit on 6 December 2021. This short working visit to New Delhi was followed by a virtual meeting with the President of the United States (US) Joe Biden a day later. A follow up on their Geneva Summit in June 2021, the meeting came amid growing tension between the US-EU and Russia over Ukraine. Putin’s virtual meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping took place soon after on 15 December, where the growing relationship between the two neighbours was demonstrated.
The sequence of these meetings is important to understand Russia’s foreign policy interests and priorities. The paper briefly examines the outcomes of these meetings and delves into the impact of Russia’s equation with the US and China.
21st India-Russia Summit
Since the Declaration of the Strategic Partnership in 2000, annual India-Russia summits have defined India-Russia bilateral ties. Nevertheless, the recent summit was notable as it took place after a gap of two years due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The meeting was also symbolic as it was President Putin’s only second in-person meeting of the year. Prime Minister (PM) Modi and he exchanged views on a wide array of bilateral issues such as cooperation in energy, space and military. The two leaders also discussed international issues such as the developments in Afghanistan, Syria, among others.[i]Both “emphasised that Afghanistan’s territory should not be used for sheltering, training, planning or financing any terrorist groups including ISIS, Al Qaeda, LeT, etc.”[ii]
India and Russia also held their first 2+2 format dialogue including the Defence and Foreign Ministers of both countries on the side lines of President Putin’s visit. The Russian delegation included Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov. Apart from the political figures, Russian energy giant Rosneft’s CEO-Igor Ivanovic Sechin was also a part of the delegation, which indicated a push for strengthening the energy cooperation between the two countries.[iii] This renewed focus on energy and “new drivers of growth for long term cooperation” [iv] was aimed at enhancing the economic pillar of the India-Russia partnership.
Overall, the 2+2 dialogue and the Modi-Putin meeting were dominated by efforts to intensify military-technical and energy ties between India and Russia. An intergovernmental agreement to extend military-technical cooperation for another ten years (2021-2031) was reached. The agreement envisages cooperation between services and branches of the armed forces and the supply and development of weapons and military hardware.[v] In the energy sphere, a notable development was the signing of an oil contract wherein Russia has agreed to supply about two million metric tonnes of oil to India via the Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk in southern Russia by the end of 2022.[vi][vii]
Notwithstanding the concerns over Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which includes defence deals with Russia, Delhi and Moscow were able to finalise a deal on the S-400 air defence system. Furthermore, Russia’s Deputy PM Yuri Borisov has indicated that India could become first foreign buyer of Russia's S-500 surface-to-air missile systems once domestic needs of the Russian Army are met. [viii]
Both the countries also inked a deal to co-produce AK-203 assault rifles in Amethi district of Uttar Pradesh.[ix] The AK-203 rifles are expected to replace Indian Small Arms System (INSAS). This joint venture[x] between India and Russian companies would lead to a complete transfer of technology to India in a few years.[xi] Several other agreements were reached to enhance cooperation in all pillars of the relationship, including people-to-people and cultural linkages.
A key pact which is yet to be concluded reportedly is the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS) but is expected to be finalised soon. [xii] RELOS is “a bilateral administrative agreement to provide logistical support that facilitates access to each other’s military facilities, in exchange of fuel and other provisions.”[xiii] This interoperability framework in particular would benefit the Indian Navy by facilitating its access to the Arctic region-an important region for India to increase its presence. Furthermore, it would also improve “India’s access to its own investments in the Russian far-east region”.[xiv]
Overall, the timing of the President Putin’s visit to India was crucial as it sought to reiterate the enduring significance of Delhi-Moscow partnership despite geopolitical changes. President Putin and PM Modi also held a follow up phone call on 20 December 2021 to discuss the agreements reached on December 6. [xv] It is important to note that apart from close political ties, the military-technical dynamic has traditionally been the core pillar of their partnership and has further been strengthened through Russia’s participation in joint development and production under the 'Make in India' initiative.[xvi]Despite India’s diversification of defence imports, Russia continues to be its predominant defence supplier and is still the only country to have offered technology transfers to India.
Putin-Biden Meeting
President Putin’s meeting with PM Modi was followed by a virtual meeting with President Biden a day later. A follow up on the Geneva meeting held in June 2021, the two leaders deliberated on topics of mutual interest including the US concerns over Russian troops around Ukraine and Russian objections over NATO's expansion.[xvii] Meanwhile, the US Assistant dealing with European and Eurasian Affairs, Karen Donfried also met with Deputy Chief of Staff of the Office of the Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov on 15 December to discuss the situation in and around Ukraine.[xviii]
While the Putin-Biden meeting in itself was not a breakthrough moment, it was an important step towards continuing with regular dialogue, even if to disagree. Given the escalation of tension around Ukraine, Moscow’s demands for security guarantees including commitment from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) “to refrain from any further enlargement,”[xix] the US-Russia relations remain in a tough spot. However, a meaningful dialogue is crucial to ensure regional as well as global stability and the virtual call was a positive step in that direction. The upcoming NATO-Russia Council meeting in January 2022[xx] is also an important development with respect to the de-escalation of tension around Ukraine as well as West-Russia ties.
In this context, it is important to note that the Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance released on 3 March 2021 termed China and Russia as ‘assertive’ and ‘destabilising’ respectively.[xxi] However, the document makes clear that China poses a bigger challenge (especially in the new and emerging technologies domain) to the US and would also be its major foreign policy preoccupation. In this environment, it is clear that the US would prefer a mellowing of its ties with Russia. This approach was also evident when President Biden sought an early meeting with Putin, after meeting his European allies in June.
While a turnaround in the US-Russia relations is unlikely, such regular bilateral and multilateral dialogues between the two could avoid an untoward security scenario. The two leaders spoke again over phone on 30 December to seek a diplomatic path to ‘de-escalate tensions with Ukraine’.[xxii]
Putin-Xi Meeting
The final meeting in this series of diplomatic balancing was President Putin’s virtual meeting with President Xi Jinping on 15 December. Both had met virtually earlier in the year to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the signing of the “Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness, Friendship, and Cooperation between China and Russia” on 28 June, 2021 as well. [xxiii]
Continuing with earlier phraseology, Russian President Vladimir Putin termed Russia-China ties “a shining example of interstate cooperation in the 21st century,” in the December meeting.[xxiv]Apart from other domains of cooperation, it was interesting to note that President Putin referred to the celebration of “2022 and 2023 as the Russian and Chinese Years of Cooperation in Physical Education and Sports.”He also referred to an in-person meeting with the Chinese President in February 2022 on the side lines of the Winter Olympics Games.[xxv]This was an important political signalling given that the US’ ‘diplomatic boycott’ of winter Olympics in China.[xxvi] This implies that while the athletes would participate, there will be no official representation from these countries.[xxvii]
President Xi Jinping also expressed his deep appreciation and readiness to work with President Putin and pointed that “efforts must be made to firmly reject hegemonic acts and the Cold War mentality under the disguise of ‘multilateralism’ and ‘rules’.[xxviii]These remarks came in the backdrop of increasing momentum of the Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad) as well as the recent ‘democracy summit’[xxix] to which both Russia and China were not invited.
Overall, the meeting was yet another reiteration of the deepening Russia-China ties amid their respective tensions with the West. For India, Russia’s role as a balancer is crucial especially since a trilateral summit under the Russia India China (RIC) format is also in the offing in the coming months.
Conclusion
Russia’s diplomatic engagement with the US, China and India reflects the country’s pursuit to balance its ties with major power centres and maintain its great power status.
Russia has drawn closer to China ever since its isolation with the US and EU increased in 2014. Although Moscow and Beijing are still not ‘allies’, both have intensified their bilateral cooperation over the years. However, the relationship lacks the resilience and trust that is often characteristic of the Delhi-Moscow partnership. Both Delhi and Moscow have continued with their joint efforts in combating Covid-19, including vaccine production and supply, pharmaceuticals delivery, humanitarian aid, etc despite occasional differences. In this respect, President Putin’s visit to Delhi was timely and symbolic as it allayed apprehensions regarding the growing distance in India-Russia ties, particularly due to their diverging approaches to the Indo-Pacific or Asia-Pacific.
The complex regional dynamics which involve growing India-US ties and a growing Russia-China proximity have consequences for the India-Russia dynamic. A conversation between Russia and the US is a welcome development for India. Notwithstanding their differences, Russia and the US comprise major power centres and a working relationship between the two is important to maintain global and regional stability. For India, this dynamic is important as it develops its relations with the Western partners and addresses its security concerns vis à vis an increasingly assertive China.
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*Dr. Himani Pant, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views are of the author.
Endnotes
[i]“Putin and Modi discussed cooperation in energy and space,” Rossiskaya Gazeta, 6 December 2021, https://rg.ru/2021/12/06/putin-i-modi-obsudili-sotrudnichestvo-v-energetike-i-kosmose.html, Accessed on 7 December 2021.
[ii]Partnership for Peace, Progress and Prosperity. India-Russia Joint Statement following the visit of the President of the Russian Federation, The Kremlin, 6 December, http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5745, Accessed on 7 December 2021.
[iii]Ibid.
[iv]India- Russia Joint Statement following the visit of the President of the Russian Federation, Ministry of External Affairs,December 06, 2021, https://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/34606/India_Russia_Joint_Statement_following_the_visit_of_the_President_of_the_Russian_Federation, Accessed on 7 December 2021.
[v]“Russia, India sign military-technical cooperation agreement for period until 2030 to envisage weapon supply, development,” Interfax, 6 December 2021, https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/73303/, Accessed on 7 December 2021.
[vi]Russia and India sign oil supply deal, see need for stable prices in talks , SPG Global, 6 December, 2021, accessed, https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120621-russia-and-india-sign-oil-supply-deal-see-need-for-stable-prices-in-talks, Accessed on 24 December 2021
[vii]Rosneft and Indian petroleum majors agreed on cooperation in education and training, Rosneft, 6 December 2021, https://www.rosneft.com/press/releases/item/208743/, Accessed on 8 December 2021.
[viii]India could become first foreign buyer of Russia's S-500 missile systems - Deputy PM Borisov, Interfax, 13 December 2021, https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/73368/, Accessed on 14 December 2021.
[ix]Transcript of Special Media Briefing by Foreign Secretary on 21st India-Russia Annual Summit, Ministry of External Affairs, 7 December 2021, https://mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/34610/Transcript_of_Special_Media_Briefing_by_Foreign_Secretary_on_21st_IndiaRussia_Annual_Summit_December_06_2021, Accessed on 8 December 2021.
[x]The initiative is part of a special purpose joint venture named Indo-Russian Rifles Private Ltd (IRRPL). It was set up with the erstwhile Ordnance Factory Board which is now Advanced Weapons and Equipment India Limited (AWEIL) and Munitions India Limited (MIL)] of India and Rosoboronexport (RoE) of Russia.
[xi]India signs AK-203 assault rifle deal with Russia worth Rs 5,124 crore, The Economic Times, 6 December 2021, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/deal-for-ak-203-rifles-between-india-russia-finalised/articleshow/88118637.cms?from=mdr, Accessed on 6 December 2021.
[xii]Transcript of Special Media Briefing by Foreign Secretary on 21st India-Russia Annual Summit, Ministry of External Affairs, 6 December, 2021, Accessed on 7 December 2021.
[xiii] India-Russia bilateral logistics agreement to be soon concluded, 6 September 2021, https://indbiz.gov.in/india-russia-bilateral-logistics-agreement-to-be-soon-concluded/, Accessed on 8 December 2021.
[xiv] Ibid.
[xv] Telephone conversation between Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, Ministry of External Affairs, 20 December 2021, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/34711/Telephone_conversation_between_Prime_Minister_Shri_Narendra_Modi_and_His_Excellency_Vladimir_Putin_President_of_the_Russian_Federation, Accessed on 22 December 2021.
[xvi]Prime Minister Narendra Modi's remarks at the 21st India-Russia Annual Summit
6 December, 2021, Ministry of External Affairs, http://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/34605/PM_Narendra_Modis_remarks_at_the_21st_IndiaRussia_Annual_Summit, Accessed on 7 December 2021
[xvii]Some energy agreements to be signed by Moscow, Delhi during Putin's visit to India - Russian presidential aide, Interfax, 3 December 2021, https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/73297/, Accessed on 11 December 2021
[xviii]Assistant Secretary Donfried’s Visit to Russia , US Embassy and Consulates in Russia, 15 December 2021, https://ru.usembassy.gov/assistant-secretary-donfrieds-visit-to-russia/, Accessed on 16 December 2021
[xix]Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en&clear_cache=Y, Accessed on 21 December 2021.
[xx]NATO invites Russia to call Russia-NATO Council meeting on January 12, TASS, 26 December 2021, https://tass.com/world/1381091, Accessed on 27 December 2021.
[xxi] Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, The White House, 3 March, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/NSC-1v2.pdf, Accessed on 24 December 2021.
[xxii] Statement by Press Secretary Jen Psaki on President Biden’s Phone Call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/30/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-president-bidens-phone-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/
[xxiii] China, Russia agree to extend good-neighborliness treaty as Putin congratulates CPC on centenary in phone call with Xi, Global Times, 28 June 2021, Accessed on 28 December 2021.
[xxiv]Talks with President of China Xi Jinping, The Kremlin, 15 December 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67364, Accessed on 15 December 2021.
[xxv]Putin looking forward to in-person meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing in February, TASS, 15 December 2021, https://tass.com/politics/1375819, Accessed on 16 December 2021.
[xxvi]How much does the diplomatic boycott of Beijing 2022 matter?, BBC, 13 December 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59646231, Accessed on 29 December 2021
[xxvii]The ‘diplomatic’ Olympic boycott, The Hindu, 10 December, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/the-diplomatic-olympic-boycott/article37921407.ece, Accessed on 12 December 2021.
[xxviii]President Xi Jinping Had a Virtual Meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, MFA China, 15 December 2021, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202112/t20211215_10470186.html, Accessed on 16 December 2021.
[xxix]The Summit for Democracy, US department of State, https://www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy/, Accessed on 18 December 2021.