The economic crisis that Sri Lanka has been facing since the beginning of this year has culminated in large-scale people’s protests against the government. In response to the failure of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) government led by Gotabaya Rajapaksa to provide relief from shortage of basic necessities such as food, medicine and fuel, thousands of protesters occupied the residence and offices of the President and Prime Minister (PM) of Sri Lanka on the 9th of July 2022. This forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to offer his resignation and leave the country, on the 13th of July to Maldives and then to Singapore. He resigned after reaching Singapore on the 14th of July 2022. PM Ranil Wickremasinghe has also offered to resign to pave the way for formation of an interim government (all party government). For now, Ranil Wickramasinghe will act as Acting President till the time the Sri Lankan Parliament elects a new President this week. To quell public protest, the Acting President imposed a state of emergency on 18th of July.
Reasons for Public Protests
Sri Lanka has been reeling under severe food and fuel shortage. Non-availability of essential commodities for months led to uncontrollable situation on the domestic front for Sri Lanka. The government has also closed schools and all other non-essential activities. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), nearly 6.3 million Sri Lankans became food insecure due to the economic crisis in the last one year.[i] This has forced all sections of Sri Lankans to come out on the streets to defy the curfew that was imposed on 9th of July. After the curfew was announced, UN agencies urged the government not to go against public will.
What has weakened public confidence in the government was not just the day-to-day hardships they have been facing but also the continuation of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the President, despite the popular demand for his resignation. Resignation of PM Mahinda Rajapaksa in May this year and all other Ministers belonging to Rajapaksa family did not stabilise the political situation. The appointment of Ranil Wickramasinghe as the PM, without the support of opposition parties, also did not help restore political normalcy. Despite repeated appeals by the President and the PM in the last few months that political stability is a necessity to get international assistance, particularly from international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), protests continued.
Events of 9th July also indicate that public lost confidence in political parties and public representatives because of their inability to pull the country out of the crisis. The Aragalaya (Struggle) movement, led by common Sri Lankans, has played a pivotal role in mobilising public anger against the government.
What Next for Sri Lanka?
After the outpour of public anger, an all-party representative meeting was held on 10 July 2022, chaired by the Speaker of Sri Lankan Parliament, Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena. The all-party meeting, came out with few consensus proposals which were submitted to President Gotabaya. These proposals include, resignation of the President and the PM with immediate effect; summoning of Parliament within seven days and appointment of an Acting President as per the Constitution; the establishment of an interim government headed by a new PM and calling for an election within a certain period of time to give people an opportunity to elect a new Parliament.[ii] In the same meeting, the proposal put forward by PM Ranil Wickramasinghe, to make him as Acting President after the resignation of the President of Sri Lanka was rejected by opposition parties such as Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP).
Since the President has sent his resignation to the Speaker of Parliament, Sri Lankan parliamentarians are hoping to elect a new President by 20th of July. There are three candidates in the race to become the next President of Sri Lanka, Dullas Alahapperuma of Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Anura Kumara Dissanayake of National People’s Power (NPP) and Ranil Wickramasinghe of United National Party (UNP).[iii]
Though, the President is to be elected by the Parliament, the composition of present Parliament may not represent people’s wishes.[iv] Currently there are 15 political parties representing the 225 members of Parliament of Sri Lanka. The ruling SLPP had won 145 members, the main opposition SJB has 54 and Tamil political party the ITAK has 10 in 2019 parliamentary elections.[v] The ruling SLPP commands a clear majority in parliament. Parliamentary elections to elect a new government can only be held after September this year once the present Parliament completes two and half year term as per the Constitution.
Even if a new government is formed, with the help of parliamentarians representing various political parties or civil society representatives, Sri Lanka’s problems are far from over. Centralisation of power, lack of transparency in the judiciary, institutionalised corruption and not addressing the genuine issues of reconciliation and accountability in post-war society during Rajapaksa led government have culminated into the present crisis in Sri Lanka. The two and half years of Rajapaksa rule garnered considerable international attention due to various political and economic policy decisions. One is pulling out of United Nations Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) 2015 Resolution on Reconciliation in Sri Lanka that called for accountability for human rights violations. This has effectively meant that the Sri Lankan government no longer need to deliver much needed reconciliation and accountability measures to address concerns of the Tamil minority community in Sri Lanka. Appointment of a significant number of military officers to positions in the public administration usually held by civilians has also been criticised as a move towards militarisation of the public sector.[vi] Some of these measures have alienated opposition parties and minority community further from government.
The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has also tried to encourage the Tamil diaspora in the wake of the current crisis, to remit money in USD and Euros to bring in foreign exchange for Sri Lanka.[vii] However, Tamil diaspora would like to help Sri Lanka only when forward movement is made as regards to the ethnic issue because they believe that the main reason for the current economic crisis in Sri Lanka is the unresolved ethnic question and spending of resources by the government to wage a long war.[viii]
In popular view, family rule has institutionalised corruption during Rajapaksa government. On 15th of July, the Supreme Court (SC) of Sri Lanka, barred both Mahinda Rajapaksa, former PM and Basil Rajapaksa, former Finance Minister to leave the country, after a fundamental rights petition was filed in SC seeking investigation of individuals responsible for the economic crisis in Sri Lanka.[ix]
For the first time in its history, Sri Lanka has defaulted on its debt, which is nearly $51 billion[x]. Sri Lanka is banking on IMF bailout. The IMF Spokesperson has said they are waiting for political situation to stabilise for the resumption of talks on IMF supported programme.[xi] But, the approval of the programme, at the domestic level may not be easy for the next government, due to possible conditionalities that are usually applied to IMF structural adjustment programmes. According to Department of External Resources of Sri Lanka, nearly 67 percent of borrowings are market borrowings and borrowings from international financial institutions such as World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB).[xii] Sri Lankan government has also planned to organise a donor conference involving bilateral donors such as India, China and Japan and wants to create an aid consortium to get loan assistance from donor countries and international financial institutions.[xiii] It remains to be seen if this idea will materialise. In this scenario, addressing debt and corruption issues along with addressing immediate needs of the people of Sri Lanka is going to be a challenge for the new all party-government.
International Response
The economic and political crisis, the twin challenges that Sri Lanka is witnessing at present is unprecedented in the history of Sri Lanka. The underlying concern of international community has been maintaining peace in Sri Lanka and a smooth transition of power.
Amidst the crisis, India stood as a reliable partner for Sri Lanka. India’s overall approach towards the crisis in Sri Lanka has been based on two main concerns; addressing the economic hardships faced by people and second is supporting democratic transition of power.
India has extended significant humanitarian and financial assistance to Sri Lanka in the last one year, emerging as the country, to have extended maximum support to Sri Lanka. This year alone India delivered $ 3.8 billion aid through currency swap, financing of food, fuel, medicine and through supply of fertilisers.[xiv] The statement issued by India after the 9th July 2022 developments, that India “stands with the people of Sri Lanka as they seek to realise their aspirations for prosperity and progress through democratic means and values, established institutions and constitutional framework”[xv] summarised India’s policy towards the island nation and its stand taken on the present crisis.
The United States, which has announced USD$ 11.75 million in June 2022 to support Sri Lanka during economic crisis[xvi] called upon all political parties to achieve a peaceful democratic transition of power.[xvii] China, to whom Sri Lanka owes 10 percent of debt has provided RMB500 million emergency humanitarian assistance.[xviii] Sri Lanka is also trying to negotiate a USD$4 billion aid with China.
Ukraine President, Volodymyr Zelensky has blamed Russia for causing the ongoing crisis in Sri Lanka as it caused disruptions in food supply chain.[xix] US has also drawn a linkage between the food crisis resulting from Ukraine war and the Sri Lankan crisis. Gotabaya Rajapaksa on 6th of July had called the President of Russia Vladimir Putin and requested credit to import fuel.[xx]
Conclusion
Normalcy may not return soon to Sri Lanka given the present economic and political situation and loss of public trust in people’s representatives. A Committee, comprising of Chief of Defence Staff, Tri force Commanders and Inspector General of Police (IGP) had been appointed by the Acting President to restore normalcy and law and order. But this may not help to quell people’s protests. Meanwhile, religious leaders have appealed to people to maintain restraint and warned of foreign intervention if violence breaks out.[xxi]
Sri Lanka’s deep economic crisis, cannot be addressed in the short run. The forthcoming government in Sri Lanka will have to work hard to ensure both the immediate needs of the people of Sri Lanka and long-term solutions to revive the economy. For now, the crisis in Sri Lanka has blurred the political and cultural lines, which is a somewhat positive development in a country clearly divided for long on the same lines.
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*Dr. Samatha Mallempati, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
End Notes
[i] United Nations (UN) News, “Record inflation and skyrocketing prices leave over 6 million Sri Lankans food insecure”, 6 July 2022, https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/07/1122042. Accessed on July 10, 2022.
[ii] The Island, Consensus on Speaker as Acting Prez, Ranil’s move to succeed GR rejected, 11 July 2022, https://island.lk/consensus-on-speaker-as-acting-prez-ranils-move-to-succeed-gr-rejected/. Accessed on July 10 2022.
[iii] Daily Mirror, “Ready to withdraw nomination if two MPs without future political agendas appointed as Prez, PM: AKD”, 17 July 2022, https://www.dailymirror.lk/latest_news/Ready-to-withdraw-nomination-if-two-MPs-without-future-political-agendas-appointed-as-Prez-PM-AKD/342-241238. Accessed on July 17, 2022.
[iv] Daily Mirror, “Election the only solution to fulfil people’s true aspirations: JVP reiterates”, 14 July 2022, https://www.dailymirror.lk/latest_news/Election-the-only-solution-to-fulfil-peoples-true-aspirations-JVP-reiterates/342-241100. Accessed on July 14, 2022.
[v] Other parties represented in Parliament are the JJB (03), AITC (02), EPDP (02), UNP, SLFP, OPPP (Our Power of People Party), TMVP (Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal), MNA (Muslim National Alliance), TMTK (Tamil Makkal Theshiya Kutani), ACMC (All Ceylon Makkal Congress), NC (National Congress) and SLMC (Sri Lanka Muslim Congress) represented by one MP each (source The Island, Sri Lanka newspaper).
[vi] M. Raymond Izarali and Dalbir Ahlawat (eds.), ‘Terrorism, Security and Development in South Asia, first published 2021, Routledge, London and New York, p.56.
[vii] The Morning Lk, “TNA making efforts to uplift SL from economic crisis, Govt. remains unresponsive: Shanakiyan”, 20 June 2022, https://www.themorning.lk/tna-making-efforts-to-uplift-sl-from-economic-crisis-govt-remains-unresponsive-shanakiyan/. Accessed on July 10, 2022.
[viii] The Tamil Guardian, “TNA leader says diaspora will only assist in Sri Lanka if Tamil question is solved”, 28 June 2022, https://www.tamilguardian.com/content/tna-leader-says-diaspora-will-only-assist-sri-lanka-if-tamil-question-solved. Accessed on July 14, 2022. Accessed on 14 July 2022.
[ix] Colombo Gazette, “Travel ban issued on Mahinda and Basil”, 15 July 2022, https://colombogazette.com/2022/07/15/travel-ban-issued-on-mahinda-and-basil/.
[x] Economic Times, “Sri Lanka defaults on entire $51 billion external debt”, 12 April 2022, https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/sri-lanka-defaults-on-entire-51-billion-external-debt/90803189
[xi] Colombo Gazette, “IMF seeks stability to resume talks with Sri Lanka”, 15 July 2022, https://colombogazette.com/2022/07/15/imf-seeks-stability-to-resume-talks-with-sri-lanka/. Accessed on 15 July 2022.
[xii] Department of External Resources, Government of Sri Lanka, “Foreign Debt Summary”, http://www.erd.gov.lk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=102&Itemid=308&lang=en.
[xiii] Ranil Wickramasinghe, 27 May 2022, https://twitter.com/RW_UNP/status/1530202616671932416.
[xiv] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Official Spokesperson’s response to media queries on the situation in Sri Lanka”, 10 July 2022, https://www.mea.gov.in/response-to-queries.htm?dtl/35487/Official_Spokespersons_response_to_media_queries_on_the_situation_in_Sri_Lanka.
[xv] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Official Spokesperson’s response to media queries on the situation in Sri Lanka”, 9 July 2022, https://www.mea.gov.in/response-to-queries.htm?dtl/35487/Official_Spokespersons_response_to_media_queries_on_the_situation_in_Sri_Lanka. Accessed on 11 July 2022.
[xvi] USAID, “THE UNITED STATES ANNOUNCES NEARLY $12 MILLION IN ASSISTANCE TO RESPOND TO SRI LANKA’S DETERIORATING FOOD SECURITY AND ECONOMIC CRISES”, 21 June 2022, https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/jun-21-2022-united-states-announces-nearly-12-million-assistance-respond-sri-lanka-crises.
[xvii] ANI, US extends support to Sri Lanka, urges cooperation from all political parties to resolve debt crisis”, 10 July 2022, https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/us-extends-support-to-sri-lanka-urges-cooperation-from-all-political-parties-to-resolve-debt-crisis20220710214130/ Accessed on 11 July 2022.
[xviii] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on July 15, 2022”, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202207/t20220715_10722211.html. Accessed on July 19, 2022
[xix] ANI, “Zelenskyy hold Russia 'accountable' for ongoing catastrophe in Sri Lanka”, 14 July 2022, https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/zelenskyy-hold-russia-accountable-for-ongoing-catastrophe-in-sri-lanka20220714055627/. Accessed on July 14, 2022.
[xx] Meera Srinivasan, “Gotabaya turns to Putin for urgent fuel supplies for Sri Lanka”,6 July 2022, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/gotabaya-turns-to-putin-for-urgent-fuel-supplies-for-sri-lanka/article65608364.ece.
[xxi] Daily Mirror,” Avoid violence and act with restraint: Religious leaders”, 13 July 2022, https://www.dailymirror.lk/latest_news/Avoid-violence-and-act-with-restraint-Religious-leaders/342-240992. Accessed on July 14, 2022. Accessed on July 14, 2022.