Former Prime Minister (PM) of Japan Shinzo Abe was a visionary statesman and internationalist. His strategic acumen, towering stature and formidable political prowess played central roles in policymaking within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. His policies and achievements continue to influence Japan's geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape. Some of his pivotal leadership and diplomatic initiatives are in the formulation of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), revamping of trade deals like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement of Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the economic policy of 'Abenomics' and 'Womenomics' for revitalising the Japanese economy. Moreover, his legacies include infrastructure connectivity, institution-building, developmental assistance, maritime security cooperation with democratic nations and commitment to a rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific region.
The paper analyses the salient points of Abe's legacies in domestic politics, international politics and his roles in India-Japan relations.
Shinzo Abe's Domestic Legacy
Shinzo Abe inherited a political understanding from his grandfather and among the first post-war PMs of Japan (1957-60), Nobusuke Kishi, to make Japan a 'Normal State', which could defend itself militarily and participate in global affairs as a rule-making nation. As the longest serving PM (2006-07 and 2012-20), he reinterpreted Article 9 of the pacifist constitution to permit Self Defence Forces for collective self-defence around Japan. As an influential PM (who is first among equals in the cabinet), Abe not only limited the political power of the bureaucracy in case of an emergency security crisis but also set up a 'National Security Council' and 'Defence Ministry' to deal with security challenges [1].
Abe brought four significant changes such as the recognition of the Maritime Self Defense Force (MSDF), an increase in the government funding for education, incorporation of the emergency powers to the PM during a national crisis, and ensuring equity in electoral representation between rural and urban voters [2].
Abe was aware that a strong economy is needed to bolster its defence capabilities. He emphasised economic reform via mergers and acquisitions of companies, better corporate governance with increasing women participation, and trade deals with major economies to boost the agricultural sector aimed at reviving the Japanese economy [3].
Abe believed that Japan can not afford to live under Chinese hegemony in East Asia as his nuanced strategy was to uphold the principle of freedom, democracy, and the rule of law. Therefore, he understood the need to focus on Japan's China policy due to challenges in the defence, economic, and diplomatic spheres [4].
He used the political debate about the revision of the constitution for the reinterpretation of Article 9 through legislation, which permits Japan's Self Defence Forces to join the US forces under the 'right to collective self-defence' to defend Taiwan against the Chinese invasion. The idea of Article 9 of the pacifist constitution is based on the assumption that Japan's security should depend on the US-Japan security alliance. On the contrary, Japan, surrounded by three hostile nuclear neighbours, China, North Korea and Russia, has the arduous task of amending Article 9, which is not possible unless one holds a two-third majority in both houses of the Diet and public support in the national referendum [5].
Abe's coherent strategic vision vis-à-vis the rise of China changed Japan's security policy. In 2015, the Abe administration passed 'National Security Legislation' to strengthen the security alliance with the US and other major powers to deal with aggressive Chinese military postures and solve global problems such as maritime piracy, terrorism, disaster management etc. He raised defence spending, increased penalties for leaking state secrets, and created the 'National Security Council' supported by the 'Secretariat' under the Prime Minister's Office for foreign and security policymaking. He wanted to improve Japan's wider diplomatic profile and economic diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific region [6].
During Abe's first prime ministerial stint (2006-07), Japan suffered from deflation with a falling birth rate and an ageing population. He wanted to build Japan as a strong power to prominently assert itself on the world stage. He reiterated, "Japan is not, and will never be a tier-two country" [7]. His second prime ministerial stint (2012-20) started after Fukushima's earthquake, tsunami, nuclear meltdown and financial crisis. He was proactive in launching an economic agenda (Abenomics) and legal framework (a reinterpretation of Article 9 for 'collective self-defence') [8].
Abe's legacies include strengthening defence, reinvigorating proactive diplomacy, providing political stability and making Japan an open and accessible nation for immigrants. Under Abenomics, he tried to revive the economy from deflation, debt and demographics through monetary easing, flexible fiscal policy, and deregulation and structural reforms but could not do so. As a result, the Japanese economy is still under tepid growth, deflationary pressure and structural inefficiencies [9]. He was well aware of Japan's ageing and declining population and its repercussion on the reduced size of the working population. Therefore, he put forward the policy of 'Womenomics', under which he attempted to raise the proportion of working women in the corporate sector [10]. Abe's slogan – "a society where women shine" – highlights his administration's commitment to women-empowerment. His economic policies brought openness and transparency in corporate governance, the labour market, and access to immigration to revive Japan's moribund economy, but the COVID pandemic halted his program halfway.
Abe's policy framework seems to guide Japan's domestic politics and foreign-security policies. However, there is a need for rapid military modernisation, strengthening of the Japan-US security alliance, and deeper regional security ties with other democratic nations, especially to check and balance Chinese expansionism [11].
Shinzo Abe's International Legacy
Abe believed that the rise of China and its strategic implications compelled Japan to balance its economic and security policies by increasing defence spending while maintaining peace through economic growth and diplomatic manoeuvring externally [12].
Abe underscored the need for the military build-up because Japan is surrounded by three nuclear-armed neighbours, North Korea, Russia and China. He wanted to sign a nuke-sharing agreement with its security ally, the United States, to deter external security threats preemptively. He was right in his assessment keeping in mind the Russia-Ukraine Crisis and the development of North Korean nuclear-capable missiles and hydrogen bombs. Not long ago, China enacted a 'National Security Law' which criminalised public dissent and decimated the basic freedom given to Hong Kong under 'One Country, Two Systems'. Furthermore, Xi Jinping-led China seeks to occupy Taiwan militarily. Against this backdrop, Abe wanted to make Japan strong enough to stand up for its self-defence and play a proactive role in collective security with like-minded democratic powers to maintain the rule of law and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region [13].
Abe's geopolitical vision values democracy, freedom of navigation, and the rule of law to re-imagine the 'Broader Asia' between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Abe launched Asia's democratic security diamond (QUAD), a minilateral initiative to fulfil his geopolitical vision in the Indo-Pacific region. Abe's FOIP success lies in the fact that all major world powers have adopted their version of it, which considers the 'rule of law' as a fundamental democratic value for maintaining domestic political stability and international peace and security [14].
Abe played a significant role in Japan's engagements with Taiwan and advocated for preserving the status quo in the cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan. The ongoing Ukraine Crisis and the aggressive Chinese military build-up are a cause of concern for Japan-Taiwan diplomatic ties, which have reached a critical juncture. China's grey-zone operations in the cyber-security domain, disinformation campaigns, regular incursions in the air-defence identification zone and maritime economic exclusive zone, and economic sanctions to exploit Taiwan's vulnerabilities have security implications for Japan. Since Japan's Yonaguni Island is just 110 kilometres from the coast of Yilan County of Taiwan, Abe reiterated his commitment to the Taiwan issue by mentioning that "a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency" [15].
Abe's strategy was to deal with the rise of China by revitalising the domestic economy, strengthening the US-Japan security alliance, and strategic partnership agreements with India, Australia, the United Kingdom and European Union. Moreover, his strong political position and diplomatic outreach were instrumental in bringing back Japan's leading role in the liberal-democratic and rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific region [16].
One of the most important legacies of late PM Shinzo Abe could be his pronouncement of similarities between the Chinese concept of 'Strategic Frontier' and Nazi-Germany's concept of 'Lebensraum (living space)' in terms of territorial expansion and increasing its sphere of influence. In other words, China's territorial borders and exclusive economic zones are linked with its military modernisation; hence, its 'Strategic Frontiers' are not fixed and are subject to expansion based on the growing size of its economy. He referred to China's militarisation in the South China Sea, forced de facto administration of Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, claiming ownership of Taiwan and the repetitive border incursions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India. Against this backdrop, he called to defend democracy, freedom of navigation, and the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region [17].
He envisioned Japan as the champion of regional trade policy, global economic rule-making, and democratic rule-based norm-setting. In this backdrop, some of his major accomplishments are the Partnership for Quality Infrastructure (PQI), a set of sustainable infrastructure projects against the 'debt trap' of China's Belt and Road Initiative; and ensuring data governance as the organising principle through his concept of 'Data Free Flow with Trust (DFFT); and the regional free-trade agreement like CPTPP [18].
Abe increased Japan's international standing from rule-taking to rule-making power. During his tenure, he invested in sectors like defence, business, trade, investment and infrastructure projects at home and abroad [19]. Indeed, Abe expanded the diplomatic horizon and built democratic allies to uplift Japan's status as a 'tier-1 power' in the Indo-Pacific region. But, his attempts to resolve the Kuril Islands dispute with Russia, the abductions of Japanese nationals by North Korea, historical comfort women issues with South Korea, and the advocacy for the status quo in Taiwan issue with China did not yield any positive outcome [20].
Shinzo Abe's Roles in India-Japan Relations
Abe advocated the strengthening of partnership with India in his book "Towards a Beautiful Country: My Vision For Japan", published in 2007. During his prime ministerial stint (2006-07 and 2012-20), his personal India bonding resulted in the signing of an 'Agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy', a military logistics agreement, Acquisition and Cross-Serving Agreement (ACSA), and a 'special strategic and global partnership' for the Indo-Pacific region.
In his address to India's Parliament during his 2007 official visit, PM Shinzo Abe envisaged a 'Broader Asia' comprising the Indian and the Pacific Ocean. As a zone of economic interconnectedness, legal norms and institution building, the "seas of freedom and prosperity" would ensure the safety and security of critical sea lines of communication. For this reason, he called for wider cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, he referred the Swami Vivekananda's quotation: "the different streams, having their source in different places, all mingle their water in the sea". He also quoted the title of Indian Prince Dara Shikoh's book "the Confluence of the Two Seas" in his famous speech [21].
Shinzo Abe invited India to join Japan, Australia, and the US to form QUAD for safeguarding the freedom of navigation, democratic values, the rule of law, and respect for human rights in the Indo-Pacific region. As a resident power in East Asia, India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands holds a geostrategic position for navigational freedom between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean; therefore, Indian and Japanese national interests converge on the regional maritime security issue for maintaining peace, stability and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region. The rise of China's comprehensive national power, its rapid military modernisation and naval build-up and repetitive incursions are security threats to the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait [22]. Although India and Japan seem to have an optimal position in dealing with China, their bilateral relations will continue to be guided by the immense level of cooperation at the regional and global levels.
On 20 September 2011, a year ahead of the commencement of his second term as PM Shinzo Abe delivered a speech at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA). He applauded the ratification of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which complements both the Indian market and human power and Japanese technology and investment. Moreover, he emphasised that India and Japan are natural allies with common geoeconomic interests in sea lines of commerce and communication; hence, he mentioned that "a strong India is in the best interest of Japan, and a strong Japan is in the best interest of India" [23].
Shinzo Abe recalled his childhood days with Former PM Nobusuke Kishi, who chose India for his first official visit on 20 May 1957. He was overwhelmed by the generous Indian welcome that provided political capital to him before his official visit to the US in the post-war period (1945 onwards) [24]. Moreover, he was grateful that Indian Jurist Radhabinod Pal's dissent note against the guilty verdict for the 25 Japanese nationals at the UN-appointed Tokyo Trial in 1948 made his India connection personal.
Conclusion
Former PM Shinzo Abe thought ahead of his time. He was alarmed with the strategic and security implications of the rise of China. In addition, he also warned about China's increasingly aggressive military postures and economic sanctions towards the forceful occupation of Taiwan. Moreover, Abe played proactive roles in regional free trade agreements, global economic rule-making, and democratic rule-based norm-setting. He coordinated Japan's economic, security and defence diplomacy with the Western world. He asked his security ally, the United States, to abandon strategic ambiguity on the Taiwan issue and sign a nuke-sharing agreement to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion.
Abe's leading role in contemporary India-Japan relations will endure. He played an important role in deepening bilateral ties with the signing of the 'Special, Strategic and Global Partnership' and the ACSA, which accelerated the strategic cooperation in trade and investment, infrastructure and connectivity. He put India into Japan's strategic horizon via pragmatic and proactive diplomatic ties to maintain peace and economic development in the Indo-Pacific. India lost a true friend with his death, but the Modi-Kishida administration will ensure his legacy continues. The current trajectories in multilayered bilateral relations will remain the same for building the multipolar Indo-Pacific.
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* Dr. Sudeep Kumar is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer:The views are of the author.
End Notes:
[1] Tobias Harris, How Shinzo Abe Changed Japan, Foreign Policy, 8 July 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/08/shinzo-abe-assassinated-obituary-japan-legacy-abenomics/, accessed on 16 July 2022.
[2] Sheila A. Smith, Will Abe's Legacy Be Constitutional Revision?, Council on Foreign Relations, 11 July 2022, https://www.cfr.org/blog/will-abes-legacy-be-constitutional-revision accessed on 16 July 2022.
[3] Shinzo Abe and Japan's Revival, Wall Street Journal, 8 July 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/shinzo-abe-and-japans-revival-economy-assassination-prime-minister-11657286880 accessed on 16 July 2022.
[4] Jack Detsch, Abe's Legacy Will Outlive Him, Foreign Policy, 8 July 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/08/shinzo-abe-assassination-japan-indo-pacific-security/ accessed on 16 July 2022.
[5] Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, What did Shinzo Abe mean to Japan?, BBC, 12 July 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62119498 accessed on 18 July 2022.
[6] Jennifer Lind, Why Shinzo Abe Thought Japan Had to Change? Foreign Affairs, 12 July 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2022-07-12/why-shinzo-abe-thought-japan-had-change accessed on 18 July 2022.
[7] Abe Shinzo believed that Japan should assert itself in the world, The Economist, 14 July 2022, https://www.economist.com/obituary/2022/07/14/abe-shinzo-believed-that-japan-should-assert-itself-in-the-world accessed on 20 July 2022.
[8] Abe Shinzo, the champion of Japan, The Economist, 8 July 2022, https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/07/08/abe-shinzo-the-champion-of-japan accessed on 16 July 2022.
[9] Matthew P. Goodman, Shinzo Abe's Legacy as Champion of the Global Economic Order, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 July 2022, https://www.csis.org/analysis/shinzo-abes-legacy-champion-global-economic-order accessed on 16 July 2022.
[10] Motoko Rich, Shinzo Abe, Japan's Longest-Serving Prime Minister, Dies at 67, The New York Times, 11 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/08/world/asia/shinzo-abe-dead.html accessed on 18 July 2022.
[11] Abe Shinzo's Policies will live on, but may be enacted more slowly, The Economist, 10 July 2022, https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/07/10/abe-shinzos-policies-will-live-on-but-may-be-enacted-more-slowly?utm_source=headtopics&utm_medium=news&utm_campaign=2022-07-11 accessed on 16 July 2022.
[12] Koichi Nakano, Shinzo Abe Failed to Rearm Japan, Let's Keep It That Way, The New York Times, 20 July 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/opinion/japan-abe-military.html accessed on 26 July 2022.
[13] Gearoid Reidy, What the World Got Wrong About Shinzo Abe, The Washington Post, 13 July 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/what-the-world-got-wrong-about-shinzo-abe/2022/07/12/2cb5f096-0237-11ed-8beb-2b4e481b1500_story.html accessed on 20 July 2022.
[14] Matt Pottinger, Shinzo Abe invented the Indo-Pacific, Wall Street Journal, 10 July 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/shinzo-abe-invented-the-India-Japan-india-china-japan-assassinate-gun-prime-minister-11657476831 accessed on 18 July 2022.
[15] Eleanor Shiori Hughes, Taiwan had no greater champion than Shinzo Abe, 28 July 2022, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2022/07/28/commentary/japan-commentary/abe-taiwan-legacy/ accessed on 1 August 2022.
[16] Ryosuke Hanada, Abe's drive to "bring back Japan", The Interpreter, 13 July 2022, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/abe-s-drive-bring-back-japan accessed on 20 July 2022.
[17] Ex-Japan PM says China eyeing Nazi-type' lebensraum', The Indian Express, 19 October 2010, http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/exjapan-pm-says-china-eyeing-nazitype-lebensraum/699541/ accessed on 16 July 2022.
[18] Matthew P. Goodman, Shinzo Abe's Legacy as Champion of the Global Economic Order, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 July 2022, https://www.csis.org/analysis/shinzo-abes-legacy-champion-global-economic-order accessed on 16 July 2022.
[19] Richard Javad Heydarian, Shinzo Abe may be gone but his legacy lives on, Al Jazeera, 11 July 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/7/11/shinzo-abe-may-be-gone-but-japan-continues-in-his-footsteps accessed on 18 July 2022.
[20] Tomohiko Taniguchi, What Shinzo Abe really thought, The Japan Times, 11 July 2022, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2022/07/11/commentary/japan-commentary/shinzo-abe-memoir/ accessed on 18 July 2022.
[21] Shinzo Abe, "Confluence of the Two Seas", 22 August 2007, https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/pmv0708/speech-2.html accessed on 16 July 2022.
[22] Shinzo Abe, "Asia's Democratic Security Diamond", Project Syndicate, 27 December 2012, https://www.projectsyndicate.org/onpoint/a-strategic-alliance-for-japan-and-india-by-shinzo-abe accessed on 16 July 2022.
[23] Shinzo Abe, "Two Democracies Meet at Sea: For a Better and Safer Asia", 20 September 2011, https://email.gov.in/service/home/~/?auth=co&loc=en&id=2828&part=2 accessed on 16 July 2022.
[24] Ibid.