Sweden’s new Parliament opened on September 26, 2022. The newly elected members of Parliament will now select the next Prime Minister (PM). Moderate Party leader, Ulf Kristersson, is likely to be the new PM. The outcome of the recent elections has opened new facets of politics in Sweden as well as in Europe. The coalition of right-bloc parties has secured majority in Parliament. The Sweden Democrats (SD), a far-right party, emerged as the second largest party in the elections. As Sweden shifts to the right[i], this paper analyses the key outcomes of the elections and its domestic and foreign policy implications.
Political Parties in the Sweden Legislature
The Sweden legislature, Riksdag, has 349 seats. In order to form a government, a party needs a majority of 175 seats. There are currently eight political parties in Sweden, divided into two major groups. The first group comprises the Social Democratic Party, the Centre Party, the Left Party and the Green Party and forms a left-leaning bloc. The other group consists of the Moderates, the SD, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals and forms a right-leaning bloc[ii]. The former Swedish PM, Magdalena Andersson, belonged to the Social Democratic Party. She resigned in the aftermath of the election results but is currently heading the caretaker government until the new government is in place[iii].
Results of the Sweden elections
Within the left-bloc coalition, Social Democratic Party received the maximum share of votes and emerged as the largest party in Riksdag. They won 30.3% of the vote, i.e., 107 of 349 seats in the Riksdag, a two-percentage-point increase from 28.26% in 2018. The Green Party also managed to increase its share from 4.41% in 2018 to 5.08% in 2022. However, the vote share for the Centre Party and the Left Party decreased from 8.61% and 8% in 2018 to 6.71% and 6.75% in 2022, respectively. Accordingly, the total number of seats secured by the left-bloc coalition remains 173, two seats less than the 175 required to form the government[iv].
Within the right-bloc coalition, the SD emerged as the second largest party in Riksdag, securing 73 of 349 seats; its vote share increased from 17.53% in 2018 to 20.54% in 2022. The other three parties within the coalition- the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals secured fewer seats than in the elections of 2018. However, since the total number of seats secured by this bloc in Riksdag is 176, they are eligible to form a government. The table below highlights a comparative understanding of the results of the elections held in 2018 and 2022.
Summary of Parliamentary Election Results |
||||
|
September 2018 |
September 2022 |
||
Party |
Share of Votes |
Number of Seats |
Share of Votes |
Number of Seats |
The Social Democratic Party |
28.26% |
100 |
30.33% |
107 |
The Sweden Democrats |
17.53% |
62 |
20.54% |
73 |
The Moderate Party |
19.84% |
70 |
19.10% |
68 |
The Left Party |
8.00% |
28 |
6.75% |
24 |
The Centre Party |
8.61% |
31 |
6.71% |
24 |
The Christian Democrats |
6.32% |
22 |
5.34% |
19 |
The Green Party |
4.41% |
16 |
5.08% |
18 |
The Liberal Party |
5.49% |
20 |
4.61% |
16 |
The Feminist Initiative |
0.46% |
- |
- |
- |
Other parties that have notified their participation |
1.07% |
- |
1.54% |
- |
Source: Valmyndigheten[v]
The rise of Sweden Democrats
Over the last decade, Europe has witnessed a trend of the emergence of far-right parties, gaining considerable vote share in many countries[vi]. The rise of the SD aligns Sweden with the trend in Europe. With its inception in 1988, the SD was considered an extremist right party. In 2005, Jammie Akesson became the party leader. Since then, the SD has transformed from a racist to a populist party. During the phase of the global recession from 2006-2010, the SD strongly raised its voice against the corrupt elite in Sweden. The ordinary people connected with the agenda of the SD against corruption. As the SD became popular within the media it paved way for their significant electoral gains. The SD secured 20 of 349 seats in Riksdag in the 2010 elections[vii]. Since then, it has been an onward journey for the party.
The refugee crisis of 2015 changed the political dynamics in Europe. Sweden was third in the world after Canada and Australia to take the most refugees per capita[viii]. The SD has been raising its concerns against immigration and its potential consequences. While the 2018 elections secured 62 of 349 seats for the SD in Riksdag, the 2022 elections made them the second largest party in Sweden. The agenda for the recent elections was built around the same issues of immigration, violent crimes, law and order and nationalism. The three major reasons for the rise of Sweden Democrats are:
First, since 2015, the SD has considered immigration, a major problem in Sweden. Their political narratives were built upon the problem of changing demography and its potential consequences. According to political scientist Martinsson, “The main reason for the party's success in the last decade has been Sweden's uniquely high number of asylum-seekers and unusually rapidly changing demographics in terms of ethnicity and the share of foreign-born citizens”[ix]. With the subsequent increase in violent crimes across Sweden, SD’s apprehensions were further strengthened. This eventually resulted into significant electoral gains as more people were convinced with the agenda of the SD.
The second reason for the rise of the SD was the use of ‘nationalist narrative’. The SD has prioritised reducing violent crimes, if voted to power. As the Social Democratic Party struggled to control the rise of violence cases, the SD started gaining the confidence of the local ordinary people. The increase in vote share for the SD was the result of people believing that the SD is more aligned to “Swedishness”[x] and hence, can protect them. The SD leader Akesson has often invoked ‘Swedish Nationalism’ during his speeches. In one of his campaign rallies, he said, “Sweden has been a great country, a safe country, a successful country — and it can be all these things again. It’s time to give us a chance to make Sweden great again”[xi]. This eventually resulted into the SD’s political victory in the recent elections.
Third, Sweden is experiencing an economic halt with high inflation and interest rates[xii]. The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia crisis, and the rapidly increasing energy needs have impacted the people. A section of these people preferred voting for the SD over Social Democratic Party due to the lingering economic uncertainty. Thus, 2022 elections came as the highest political gain for the SD during the most uncertain times.
Domestic Challenges for the new Government
The right-led coalition has started the process of forming the new government. Moderate Party leader, Ulf Kristersson, is likely to lead the government despite his party receiving fewer votes than the SD. This is attributed to the extremist roots of the SD[xiii], where projecting Akesson as the PM would have resulted in a lesser vote share. Hence, a mutual understanding was reached among the right-bloc partners in favour of Kristersson as an apt PM candidate.
As Kristersson becomes the PM, it is not going to be an easy ride for him. The foremost challenge would be to strike a balance between the SD and the other allied partners. The political agenda of the SD differ from the other right-bloc partners, especially the Liberals[xiv]. Now that the SD has secured the maximum seats within the bloc, bypassing its recommendations will not be easy. Hence, the primary task for Kristersson would be to sustain the coalition from falling apart.
The second challenge would be to address the ongoing energy crises amidst the falling economy, rising inflation and surging living costs in Sweden. Kristersson has proposed for using more nuclear power plants to increase the energy supply; while the Social Democratic Party was committed to using more renewable sources such as solar, hydro and wind power[xv]. Sweden is part of the European Climate Pact[xvi] that aims to build a ‘Greener Europe’[xvii]. It remains to be seen how Kristersson-led government balances the domestic energy needs and its larger climate commitments.
The third challenge lies in the rise of gang-violence cases across the country. Since January 2022, forty-eight people have been killed by firearms[xviii]. While the SD look at immigration as the problem of rising gang-violence; Social Democratic Party called for better integration of immigrants and look at fixing the welfare state[xix]. The previous Andersson-led government imposed harsher punishments for those found guilty of violent crimes. However, the actions did not suffice for the reduction in crimes. The then opposition parties had called for more resolute actions and tougher punishments. As these domestic challenges continue to exist, the new government's actions will be looked at with greater anticipation.
Foreign Policy implications of the Sweden Elections 2022
The new government and the emergence of right-led bloc comes at a crucial juncture for the country. While Sweden awaits the final approval of its NATO membership, it will also be holding the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2023[xx]. Amidst these significant global developments, the actions of the new government are likely to have significant foreign policy implications.
The SD, in the past, reportedly had closer links with Russia[xxi]. Considering this the Social Democratic Party has criticised the SD for posing a security threat to the country[xxii]. However, the SD has repeatedly condemned Russia’s actions against Ukraine, but the opposition and the European Union seem to be wary of it. Now, when the SD has secured significant seats in the Riksdag, Sweden’s role in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia crisis, will be closely observed.
Second, Sweden’s NATO membership is expected to have global implications. Once its application gets a formal approval, NATO’s land border with Russia will instantly double[xxiii]. Following this, Russia’s reaction will be a major challenge for the new government. The Greens and the Left have already expressed their scepticism against NATO’s membership citing that Sweden has long remained a military non-aligned country. While the SD, Social Democratic Party and Moderates have been supportive of the membership, the internal political differences continue to exist[xxiv]. Undoubtedly, Sweden’s NATO membership is expected to have a significant impact on global geopolitics.
Third, Sweden is one of the few donor countries that fulfil the UN criteria of contributing 0.7% of GDP annually for development assistance[xxv]. Through this, the countries commit to reducing poverty and promoting sustainable global development. The SD, in the past has expressed its will to reduce this developmental assistance to 0.5% of GDP. If this happens, this is likely to impact Sweden’s global positioning among countries that provide developmental aid.
Thus, there are rising concerns, speculations and predictions amidst the changing geo-political dynamics. The new government will play a crucial role in shaping the future of politics in Sweden.
Conclusion
Sweden has long been adhering to the humanitarian doctrine of “Swedish Exceptionalism” by taking pride in being a multicultural country. It has been ‘exceptionally’ a home for most-refugees per capita among the European countries, despite being a small country. However, this doctrine has come under strain in the view of rising violent crimes across Sweden[xxvi]. Amidst this, the future narratives of ‘nationalism’ are expected to change. Since the right-wing bloc has won by a narrow margin (176 vs. 173), the stability and coalition of the new government will continue to remain a challenge. The NATO membership is also likely to impact its geopolitical orientation. The actions and decisions of the new Swedish PM will likely determine the future of Swedish political landscape amidst global challenges.
*****
*Dr. Monika Gupta is a Research Fellow at ICWA, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Euro Topics, “Election result: Sweden shifts to the rights”, https://www.eurotopics.net/en/288207/election-result-sweden-shifts-to-the-right#, accessed 23rd September 2022.
[ii] Riksdag, “Parties represented in the Riksdag and number of members”, https://www.riksdagen.se/en/members-and-parties/, accessed 22nd September 2022.
[iii] Government Offices of Sweden, “Prime Minister to lead caretaker government”, https://www.government.se/articles/2022/09/prime-minister-to-lead-caretaker-government/, accessed 24th September 2022.
[iv] Valmyndigheten, “2022 Swedish Election Results”, https://www.val.se/servicelankar/otherlanguages/englishengelska/electionresults/electionresults2022.4.14c1f613181ed0043d5583f.html, accessed 23rd September 2022.
[v] Ibid
[vi] The Hindu, “Data! Rise of the far-right in Europe”, https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-rise-of-the-far-right-in-europe/article65363903.ece, accessed 27th September 2022.
[vii] Anders Hellstrom, Tom Nilsson and Pauline Stoltz, “Nationalism vs. Nationalism: The Challenge of the Sweden Democrats in the Swedish Public Debate”, Government and Opposition 47, no. 2 (2012): 186-205.
[viii] Pew Research Center, “Canada now leads the world in refugee settlement, surpassing the US”, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/19/canada-now-leads-the-world-in-refugee-resettlement-surpassing-the-u-s/, accessed 22nd September 2022.
[ix] Deutsche Welle (DW), “Swedish election: The astonishing rise of the right-wing Sweden Democrats”, https://www.dw.com/en/swedish-election-the-astonishing-rise-of-the-right-wing-sweden-democrats/a-63100694, accessed 24th September 2022.
[x] ibid.
[xi] ibid.
[xii] Reuters, “Swedish Economy set to grind to a halt as inflation bites”, https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swedish-economy-set-grind-halt-inflation-bites-2022-09-28/, accessed 28th September 2022.
[xiii] LSE Blogs, “Sweden’s general election: Winners, losers and what happens next”, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/09/15/swedens-general-election-winners-losers-and-what-happens-next/, accessed 26th September 2022.
[xiv] ibid
[xv] TIME, “The Far-right is surging in Sweden: Here’s what to know about the upcoming election”, https://time.com/6212252/sweden-election-2022/, accessed 26th September 2022.
[xvi] The European Climate Pact is an opportunity for people, communities and organisations to participate in climate action across Europe. the Pact aims to become a lively space to share information, debate and act on the climate crisis, and offer support for a European climate movement to grow and consolidate. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/european-green-deal/european-climate-pact_en, accessed 29th September 2022.
[xvii] Euro Cities, “Swedish cities sign climate city contract”, https://eurocities.eu/latest/swedish-cities-sign-climate-city-contract/#:~:text=Following%20the%20EU's%20revision%20of,Europe's%20first%20climate%20city%20contract., accessed 28th September 2022.
[xviii] TIME, “The Far-right is surging in Sweden: Here’s what to know about the upcoming election”, https://time.com/6212252/sweden-election-2022/, accessed 26th September 2022.
[xix] ibid
[xx] Swedish Chamber of Commerce, “Sweden’s EU Presidency 2023”, https://swedishchamber.nl/news/swedens-eu-presidency-2023/#:~:text=In%20spring%202023%2C%20Sweden%20will,the%20Council%20of%20the%20EU. Accessed 26th September 2022.
[xxi] World Politics Review, “Sweden Election could have a big foreign policy impact”, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/sweden-democrats-immigration-elections-nato/?one-time-read-code=133076166444655848501, accessed 29th September 2022.
[xxii] Anadolu Agency, “Right-wing Swedish Democrats slammed as ‘security risk’ by ruling party”, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/right-wing-swedish-democrats-slammed-as-security-risk-by-ruling-party/2675442#, accessed 29th September 2022.
[xxiii] World Politics Review, “Sweden Election could have a big foreign policy impact”, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/sweden-democrats-immigration-elections-nato/?one-time-read-code=133076166444655848501, accessed 29th September 2022.
[xxiv] Statista, “Perception on Sweden’s decision to apply for NATO membership as of July 2022, by political party, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293392/survey-perception-nato-membership-sweden-political-party/, accessed 30th September 2022.
[xxv] World Politics Review, “Sweden Election could have a big foreign policy impact”, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/sweden-democrats-immigration-elections-nato/?one-time-read-code=133076166444655848501, accessed 29th September 2022.
[xxvi] Brookings, “The Rise of Sweden Democrats: Islam, Populism and the end of Swedish Exceptionalism”, https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-rise-of-sweden-democrats-and-the-end-of-swedish-exceptionalism/, accessed 26th September 2022.