Political parties in Maldives are gearing up for the upcoming presidential elections that will be held on 9 September 2023. In the 2018, Presidential elections, Maldives Democratic Party (MDP), the ruling party of Maldives, played a leading role in mobilising Opposition alliance against the then incumbent Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) government led by Abdulla Yameen.
In this election, MDP will have to overcome number of challenges to win. Internal differences between the incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and current Speaker of Maldives Parliament, Mohamed Nasheed is threatening to split the party. Nasheed played a crucial role in spearheading the movement for democracy in Maldives against three-decade long rule of Abdulla Gayoom (1978-2008). This brought Nasheed to power in 2008, as the first President of democratically elected MDP government. In 2018, he could not contest presidential elections due to terrorism and other charges levelled against him by the then PPM government, forcing him to seek asylum in the United Kingdom. In that background, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the MDP emerged as a consensus candidate of Opposition alliance and won the election. Nasheed returned to Maldives in November 2018 and led the party to victory in 2019 Parliamentary elections. However, over time, power dynamics have changed within the MDP.
After the parliamentary elections in 2019, Nasheed accepted the position as the Speaker of the Parliament and has remained as the President of the ruling party. But it did not stop him to be vocal about Ibrahim Solih’s administration and its handling of pressing political issues such as judicial reforms, religious extremism and unwillingness to move from present presidential system towards a parliamentary system. He has also been vocal about China’s role in the island nation. Assassination attempt on him by radical Islamists group in Maldives in May 2021, delay in arresting alleged suspects and government’s reluctance to criminalise hate speech as advocated by Nasheed, widened the gap between the two leaders.[i] Against this background, Ibrahim Solih won the MDP Presidential Primary election (a process to select the party’s presidential candidate), held in January 2023 against Nasheed, who refused to accept the results. Following his defeat, he announced a faction within the MDP called “Fikuregge Dhirun," (Reviving an Ideology) and has been working towards forming a new political party called the “Democrats”.[ii]If the Election Commission recognises Nasheed’s new party, it is quite likely that he will be in the race to contest elections. The No-Confidence Motion submitted on 7h June 2023, against the Speaker by the MDP parliamentary group, containing 54 parliamentarians of the party, has probably closed doors for any compromise between the two leaders.
These developments within the MDP are a boon to the Opposition PPM and People’s National Congress (PNC), alliance led by the former President Abdulla Yameen. This alliance is trying to put up a united fight against the MDP government. At present, Abdulla Yameen is serving an 11-year jail sentence pertaining to USD 1 million money laundering case. But this has not deterred his supporters from projecting him as a candidate for the forthcoming elections.[iii] In case, he cannot contest the elections due to the sentence, the party may have to mull over presenting an alternative candidate. The PPM-PNC has been active in mobilising public opinion mainly against the MDP government’s foreign policy approach.
Advantage MDP
Political stability under the MDP rule has been helpful in terms of overcoming the post-pandemic impact. Enhanced tourism and infrastructure investment has helped to place the economy on track. The World Bank has also projected a robust economic growth in the coming years.[iv] Maldives has also been trying to pursue a pro-active and independent foreign policy that took cognizance of sensitivities involved in regional geo-politics. Maldives active role at the United Nations (UN) in general and as the President of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) (September 2021-September 2022) in particular has been well recognised. It has given a voice to the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) concerns at the global level.[v] In recent years, major regional powers have also reached out to Maldives, such as the United Kingdom (UK), the United States (US) and Australia. These powers are keen to enhance bilateral engagement with the island nation within the Indo-Pacific framework. These developments under the leadership of Ibrahim Solih are important. In this scenario, the incumbent President has few options. He might try to unite the party based on the performance of his administration and reach out to the electorate, recruit new members or form an alliance with smaller Opposition parties to win the election.
However, given the internal problems with in the MDP, the PPM-PNC alliance might be able to adversely impact the ruling party, provided the situation around Abdulla Yameen gains clarity. The present situation does however provide opportunity for smaller parties such as the Jumhooree Party (JP) and Maldives National Party (MNP) to play a bigger role in national politics, by aligning with either MDP or PPM. Recently formed (24 May 2023) Democrats, led by Nasheed, is also understood to be in talks with the JP to form an alliance.
Conclusion
In this context, another political turmoil in post-pandemic years may not augur well for the country’s economy as well as for its independent foreign policy posture, which has been cultivated consciously in the last few years. Therefore, the present rumblings within the MDP, which was at the forefront in moulding public opinion in the country for democratic consolidation assumes importance.
*****
*Dr. Samatha Mallempati is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] “Speaker Nasheed endorses petition to criminalize hate crimes”, 19 June 2021, https://timesofaddu.com/2021/06/19/speaker-nasheed-endorses-petition-to-criminalize-hate-crimes/. Accessed June 5, 2023.
[ii] The Edition Mv, “Speaker Nasheed to form a new political part”, 17 May 2023, https://edition.mv/news/27899. Accessed on June 6, 2023.
[iii] “PPM-PNC presidential candidate will be Pres Yameen': Abdul Raheem”, 18 March 2023, https://avas.mv/en/129641. Accessed on June 7, 2023
[iv] The World Bank in Maldives, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/maldives/overview.Accessed on June 7, 2023
[v]Maldives -Minister for Foreign Affairs Addresses UN General Debate, 77th Session, 20-26 September 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsFOAJsFgY4. Accessed on June 8 2023