On 22 May 2023, the US and Papua New Guinea (PNG) signed a Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) and an Agreement Concerning Counter Illicit Transnational Maritime Activity Operations,[i] during the Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to PNG. Secretary Blinken was in PNG to attend the US-Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Dialogue in Port Moresby, after President Biden could not attend this meeting with the island countries. If President Biden travelled to PNG, that would have been the first US President’s visit to a Pacific Island country. Crucial agreements were signed by PNG's Defence Minister Win Bakri Daki and the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in the presence of PNG’s Prime Minister James Marape. These developments come at a time when there is growing concern about China’s assertive presence and its long-term ambitions in the Pacific Island region.
Although the final text of the Agreements are not yet available in the public domain, however, the US Department of State’s Press Release on 21 May 2023 on “Deepening US Partnership with PNG” mentioned that the agreement “will serve as a foundational framework upon which two countries can enhance security cooperation and further strengthen bilateral relationship, improve the capacity of the PNG Defence Force (PNGDF), and increase stability and security in the region”.[ii] It also mentioned that 2+2 strategic dialogue with PNG will be launched and highlighted that the total planned funding by the US in PNG for next three years is about US$ 30 million.[iii] The Media Note released by the State Department after signing the Agreement on 22 May 2023, highlighted that “this DCA will facilitate bilateral and multilateral exercises and engagements in support of regional capacity building priorities. It also enables the US to be more responsive in emergency situations in PNG”.[iv] It further noted that the agreement on Countering Illicit Transnational Maritime Activity Operations, will work to” promote good maritime governance in the region”.[v]
Speaking to the media in PNG, Secretary Blinken said that the Agreement “is grounded in … a shared vision that we have for a free and open Indo-Pacific”.[vi] In Australia, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles welcomed the Agreement as he said “a growth in the PNG-America relationship is only good from an Australian point of view.”[vii] New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins who was in PNG on the day when the Agreement was signed, said that “it is a very transparent agreement and I would see this more as an extension of an existing relationship".[viii]
In China, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning, commenting on the US-PNG Agreement during the Regular Press Conference on May 22, 2023, said that “China is not opposed to countries’ efforts to grow ties with PNG and PICs”. However she also said that “we should be on alert particularly for geopolitical games under the pretext of cooperation. At the same time, we also believe that any cooperation should not target at any third party”.[ix]
Domestically in PNG, there were some student protests in universities following the deal. The opposition in PNG said that ‘there is a lot of confusion and uneasiness around the Agreement’ and “PNG will be entering into an uncomfortable position despite emerging geo-political conflicts between superpowers within the region and the global community”.[x] However, to allay the concerns around the agreement, PM Marape clarified that “the partnership is not a partnership for PNG to be used as a place for launching offensive military operations”.[xi] The Agreement has been tabled in the PNG Parliament. Responding to domestic opposition PM Marapae said that ‘we have always had a relationship with the US militarily, DCA only upgrade that and it will not amend or change any existing laws in the country’. He further said that “the US military will only operate with approval from our military. Our navy and pilots will be trained by the US military but all US planes and ships in PNG will have our soldiers on deck in operations. The DCA does not stop us from working with all other nations, including China”.[xii]
The Pacific Island region connects the US with the broader Indo-Pacific region. For much of the post-war period the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) did not gain much diplomatic attention from the US but that has been changing recently as the US has been substantially enhancing its diplomatic and strategic engagement with the region. Earlier the US President Joe Biden hosted the first ever US-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington, in September 2022, where he stated that “the Pacific Islands are a critical voice in shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific....”[xiii] At the Summit, the White House released the first ever national US Pacific Partnership Strategy, as a key component to the broader Indo-Pacific strategy of the US.[xiv] During his recent visit to PNG, Secretary Blinken, formally invited Pacific leaders to Washington, later in the year, for the Second US-Pacific Leaders Summit.
In recent years, Pacific Islands are finding an increasingly important place in diplomatic discourse and documents in the US. The latest US Indo-Pacific Strategy 2022 highlighted that the US “will seek to be an indispensable partner to Pacific Island nations, expand diplomatic presence in the region and build defence capacities.[xv] The US National Security Strategy 2022, mentions that the US plans to “expand regional diplomatic, development, and economic engagement, with a particular focus on the Pacific Islands”. The focus areas to be addressed will include climate change, COVID-19 and China’s coercive behaviour.[xvi] So clearly what cannot be denied is that, the major driver for recent change in US orientation towards the region, is the geopolitics of the region. China factor has recently dominated discussion about the South Pacific region.
The major traditional players in the region were particularly alarmed by the Beijing, signing the Framework Agreement for Security Cooperation with Solomon Islands in April 2022. China’s assertive presence in the region and its increasing economic and diplomatic footprints in the region, have been factors causing the shifts in the regional balance of power.
In PNG, China has been financing a multi-purpose port in PNG’s Manus Island, Kumul Domestic Submarine Cable Project in PNG at the cost of US$24.53 million and other such projects. Chinese facilities on the Manus Island could be leveraged by Beijing to monitor and support operations in the Western Pacific region.[xvii][xviii]
In a kind of a push-back against China’s expanding presence in the region, Australia had announced its plans to modernise the Lombrum naval base at Manus in PNG.[xix] Later the US had announced its plans to “partner with PNG and Australia on their joint initiative at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island”.[xx] There are media reports that the latest 15 year US-PNG Agreement, has given US military, access to key PNG defence facilities, including the joint PNG-Australia Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island”. [xxi]
The timing of the US-PNG Agreement is significant as it comes interestingly against the backdrop of swift geopolitical changes in the region. Of which, the most noticeable has been China’s deeper inroads in the region. Clearly, the PICs are experiencing greater engagement from regional and extra regional powers. The month of May 2023, witnessed series of high-level activities in the region. On the same day when Secretary Blinken was in PNG, the third Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) was held in Port Moresby, PNG, attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and leaders of 14 PICs. Later in the month, Pacific Leaders attended the first ‘Korea-Pacific Islands Summit’ in South Korea, on May 29-30, 2023.
There are other recent developments in the region that needs to be analysed from geopolitical point of view, like there are media reports that Fiji under the new Prime Minister Sitveni Rabuka is reviewing a police cooperation Agreement signed with China in 2011, with a possibility of “termination” of the agreement.[xxii] Recently on 14 June, 2023, Fiji also signed a defence agreement with New Zealand to strengthen military training and maritime security. [xxiii] In another latest development, President Surangel Whipps Jr. of Palau (which maintains diplomatic ties with Taiwan) during his visit to Japan on June 14, 2023, speaking to media called for enhanced military presence by the US to deter incidents like recent “incursions by Chinese vessels” in Palau’s EEZ. [xxiv] So clearly, geopolitics is continuously evolving the region, with the US-China contestations in the Pacific Island region intensifying.
Given the current situation it is likely that the region will be increasingly securitised in the coming time, with other players in an attempt to balance China, pursuing an increasingly proactive stance in their foreign, security and military policies.
Although the PICs welcome assistance and engagement from major powers, they would not want to be caught in a zero-sum game between China and the US. At the same time, the time is opportune for the small islands in the Pacific to use their bargaining power while engaging with the major regional and extra regional powers and navigating through the constantly evolving geopolitical situation in the South Pacific region.
*****
*Dr. Pragya Pandey is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Media Note, Office of Spokesperson, The US Department of States, 22 May 2023, https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-and-papua-new-guinea-sign-new-defense-cooperation-agreement-and-an-agreement-concerning-counter-illicit-transnational-maritime-activity-operations/
[ii]Deepening US Partnership with PNG, 21 May 2023, https://www.state.gov/deepening-u-s-partnership-with-papua-new-guinea/
[iii] I bid
[iv] I bid no 1
[v] I bid no 1
[vi] United States and Papua New Guinea strengthen defence ties with new security agreement, details still to be made public, May 22, 2023, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-22/united-states-papua-new-guinea-defence-agreement-blinken-marape-/102378862
[vii] Richard Marles welcomes bilateral defence agreement between US and PNG, May 23, 2023, skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/richard-marles-welcomes-bilateral-defence-agreement-between-us-and-png/video/b6b0353ea464700a6f3eb8a264f6b3f2
[viii] Prime Minister Chris Hipkins calls United States-Papua New Guinea security deal 'different' to China's pact with Solomon Islands, 22 May 2023, https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/05/prime-minister-chris-hipkins-calls-united-states-papua-new-guinea-security-deal-different-to-china-s-pact-with-solomon-islands.html
[ix] Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s Regular Press Conference on May 22, 2023, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202305/t20230522_11081498.html
[x] Opposition wants PNG Government to Explain US Security deal as President Biden cancels Visit to PNG, 17 May 2023, https://news.pngfacts.com/2023/05/opposition-wants-png-government-to.html
[xi] Papua New Guinea won’t be base ‘for war to be launched’, says PM, after US security deal, 23 May 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/23/papua-new-guinea-pm-james-marape-antony-blinken-us-png-defence-security-deal
[xii] PM Says no laws broken in defence cooperation agreement with US, 22 May 2023, https://pina.com.fj/2023/05/22/png-pm-marape-says-no-laws-broken-in-defence-cooperation-agreement-with-u-s/
[xiii] Remarks by President Biden at the U.S.-Pacific Island Country Summit, September 29, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/09/29/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-u-s-pacific-island-country-summit/
[xiv] Remarks by President Biden at the U.S.-Pacific Island Country Summit, September 29, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/09/29/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-u-s-pacific-island-country-summit/
[xv] Indo- Pacific Strategy of the United States, February 2022, chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf
[xvi] United States, “National Security Strategy”, The White House, October 12, 2022, chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf
[xvii] U.S. joins Australian plan to develop new Pacific naval base, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-summit-port-idUSKCN1NM06X, Accessed on August 17, 2022.
[xviii] Manus is a a 2100 sq km island, north of mainland PNG. Historically, Manus Island was a major US naval base during the World War II, used extensively for the Allied campaign in the Pacific. The Island houses Lombrum Naval Base currently used by the PNG Defence Force.
[xix]Australia, U.S. Set to Expand Papua New Guinea Naval Base, November 23, 2018, https://news.usni.org/2018/11/23/australia-u-s-set-expand-papa-new-guinea-naval-base , Accessed on July 19, 2022.
[xx] I bid.
[xxi] US military granted unimpeded access to key Papua New Guinea defence facilities in new security agreement, 14 June 2023, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-14/us-military-granted-unimpeded-access-to-key-png-facilities/102480288
[xxii] Fiji minister says terminating police pact with China 'possible' 4 June 2023,https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Fiji-minister-says-terminating-police-pact-with-China-possible
[xxiii] New Zealand, Fiji sign agreement to boost defence ties, 14 June 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/new-zealand-fiji-sign-agreement-boost-defence-ties-2023-06-14/
[xxiv] Palau asks US for more military presence after incursions by Chinese vessels in its waters, 15 June 2023, https://theprint.in/world/exclusive-palau-seeks-more-u-s-patrols-of-its-waters-after-chinese-incursions/1626934/