Indian Council of World Affairs

Russia hosted a heavily publicised Second Russia–Africa Summit on 27–28 July 2023 in St. Petersburg. The Summit focused on developing Russia’s diplomatic, economic, cultural, and humanitarian relations with African countries. Representatives of 48 countries from Africa[i], including 17 Heads of States, attended this year’s summit. Although the high level representation was less compared to the first summit that was held in Sochi in 2019 (43 Heads of States attended), the intensity and scale of the second Summit reflect Russia’s growing overtures towards Africa amid new ‘geopolitical realities’ in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine War. 

Russia’s Outreach to Africa: Second Russia–Africa Summit, 27-28 July 2023 

Russia’s isolation from Western markets began amid the first wave of Ukraine crisis in 2014. Since Russia launched what it refers to as a  “special military operation” in Ukraine on February 2022, the country’s isolation from Western markets has widened owing to imposition of new and stricter economic sanctions from the West. Within this backdrop, the emphasis on building relations with the Global South has found greater resonance in Russia’s foreign policy. Pursuing deeper relations with Africa forms an intrinsic part of this approach, something that Russia’s recent foreign policy concepts (2016 and 2023) also take note of. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also alluded to the same geopolitical posturing during his several trips to Africa amid the ongoing war. 

Russia’s first concrete effort to reach out to Africa in recent years culminated in the first Russia-Africa Summit that took place in Sochi on 23-24 October 2019. The geopolitical landscape has changed rapidly since then owing to the coronavirus pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In this respect, pulling off the Second Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg is an important indication of Russia’s geopolitical approach. 

Russia and Africa signed a joint statement which included four key Declarations: Cooperation on the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space; Cooperation to Ensure International Information Security; Cooperation to Combat Terrorism; and a four-year Action Plan- Africa Partnership Forum for 2023–2026. Two Memoranda of Understanding were also signed with African regional associations- Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) on expanding cooperation.[ii] Overall, both sides signed about 161 agreements on expanding intergovernmental cooperation, education, technology sharing, and international trade. 

Russia has pushed for developing Military–Technical Cooperation (MTC) with Africa. In this context, Russia has concluded MTC agreements with more than 40 African countries to supply a wide range of weapons and equipment.[iii] Both sides have also agreed to expand engagement in the cultural sphere and promote people-to-people ties. The announcement to hold Friendship Games in Moscow and Yekaterinburg is notable in this context.[iv]

Notwithstanding the large number of agreements, two issues stood out at the Summit. First, the issue of grain supply to Africa, given that Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative just days before the Summit, and the Ukraine Peace Proposal that Africa first put forward in May and June this year. 

Grain Supply to Africa: The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which facilitated Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea to global markets, including Africa, expired on 17 July 2023 after Russia objected to its further extension.[v] While African leaders spoke about the need to resume the grain deal, no headway was reached during the Summit. Instead, President Putin noted that the deal had only been favourable to Western markets. In his speech at the Summit, President Putin committed to sending free grain supplies of 25,000–50,000 tons to six African countries- Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Eritrea.[vi] He noted that the supplies would start within 3-4 months. The Russian President also said that Russia has taken steps “to ease the debt burden African countries are facing”, claiming that Moscow has written off $23billion of debt owed by African countries. 

President Putin also referred to the International North-South transport Corridor and noted that it could be reoriented to facilitate transport and logistics flows from Russia to Africa. He noted that it was possible to have “further connections via the shortest sea route to the African continent, among other regions” to deliver and receive goods from Africa. He observed that “opening a Russian transport and logistics hub in a port on the eastern shore of Africa could be a good start” of Russia-Africa cooperation.[vii]

Africa’s Ukraine Peace Proposal: On 14 May, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed Africa’s efforts towards persuading Russia and Ukraine to start peace negotiations. On 16 June, the African peace mission visited Kiev, where it held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and later visited St. Petersburg to meet President Putin. The African peace delegation had another meeting with President Putin on the sidelines of the Summit on 27 July 2023 where President Cyril Ramaphosa observed that Africa has a “right to call for peace” because the ongoing conflict has also negatively affected by causing supply chain disruptions such as grain and fertilizers.  While the main provisions of the African initiative were not officially disclosed, President Putin noted the proximity of the African initiative and the Chinese plan to settle the situation in Ukraine.[viii]

Africa’s Uneven Response 

Russian overtures have not received a uniform response in Africa which could be described as ‘ambivalent’. This indicates Africa’s dilemma with respect to balancing ties with the Western partners and Russia. The same has been evident vis-à-vis Africa voting pattern at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions on Ukraine. For instance, 25 out of Africa’s 54 states abstained or did not vote to condemn Russia during the UNGA resolution ES-11/1 in March 2022, immediately after the beginning of war in Ukraine. Eritrea even voted against the resolution. Thus, it has been observed that African leaders have been trying to maintain a delicate balance during the Ukraine crisis so as not to jeopardise their relationships with either Russia or the West, which has resulted in an ambivalent response. In addition, the suspension of grain deal has not been well received in countries like Kenya, despite Russia’s assurances of ensuring grain supply via alternative arrangements to Africa. [ix]

Furthermore, the momentum in Russia-Africa relations could not pick up despite the first summit in 2019. Part of it was attributed to the coronavirus pandemic and the Ukraine war. Russia has a modest level of trade of about $20 billion per year with Africa. This is low when compared with China’s $280 billion, India’s $98 billion and United States’ $60 billion worth trade with the region. At present, Russia has been most visible in the security domain in some African regions where it has been able to fill the vacuum post Western withdrawal. It has been most active in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, Sudan and Libya where it “largely provides combat services, security and training support, and regime protection” to these governments who are known for their tense relationship with the West.[x] This includes operations by the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) which continues to operate in the region. Recent developments in Niger also demonstrate Russia’s growing influence in the region via Wagner PMC. 

Conclusion 

While Russia’s engagement with Africa predates the Ukraine crisis, it has intensified following the country’s isolation from Western markets since 2014. It is important to note that the country’s real-time engagement with the continent is limited in the economic, technological and socio-cultural spheres. At present, Russia has been most visible in the security domain in some African regions where it has been able to fill the vacuum post Western withdrawal. In this respect, the recently concluded second Russia-Africa Summit has opened up new avenues for cooperation between the two and reflects Russia’s foreign policy priorities as it looks for enhanced engagement with the Global South. Russia has also appreciated Africa’s Peace Initiative on Ukraine. 

For India, President Putin’s observation about using the INSTC to deliver African goods to Russia should be of interest. Given India’s growing relationship with Africa, trilateral cooperation to supply goods between India, Russia and Africa could be explored in the coming years.

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*Dr. Himani Pant is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Roscongress, Recap of the Second Summit and Russia–Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum, https://summitafrica.ru/en/news/podvedeny-itogi-vtorogo-sammita-i-ekonomicheskogo-i-gumanitarnogo-foruma-rossija-afrika/, Accessed on 2 August 2023

[ii] Roscongress, Recap of the Second Summit and Russia–Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum, https://summitafrica.ru/en/news/podvedeny-itogi-vtorogo-sammita-i-ekonomicheskogo-i-gumanitarnogo-foruma-rossija-afrika/, Accessed on 2 August 2023

[iii]Russia–Africa Summit, 28 July 2023, The Kremlin,   http://en.kremlin.ru/events/ president/ news/71826, Accessed on 1 August 2023.

[iv]Declaration of the Second Russia–Africa Summit, The kremlin, 28 July 2023, http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5972, Accessed on 31 July 2023.

[v] The grain deal was concluded on July 22, 2022, in Istanbul. The first part of the agreements was signed by the UN and Turkey separately with Russia and Ukraine. It concerned the export of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea. For further details, see https://tass.com/politics/1648045

[vi]Russian grain supplies to poorest African countries will start within 3-4 months – Putin, 30 July 2023, TASS, https://tass.com/economy/1654165, Accessed on 31 July 2023.

[vii] Plenary session of the Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum, The Kremlin, 27 July 2023, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71814, Accessed on 1 August 2023.

[viii] Meeting with heads of African delegations on Ukrainian agenda, 28 July 2023, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71835, Accessed on 3 August 2023.

[ix] https://twitter.com/SingoeiAKorir/status/1680995973311393792?s=20

[x] Nosmot Gbadamosi, Will Wagner Stay in Africa?, Foreign Policy Magazine, 28 June 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/28/will-wagner-stay-in-africa/ Accessed on 31 July 2023