Indian Council of World Affairs

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, an estimated 6.2 million Ukrainian refugees have been reported globally while 5 million people are said to be internally displaced in Ukraine.[i] Together more than 11 million people have been displaced as a result of the conflict and it is reported that one quarter of Ukrainian population have fled the country.[ii] Most of them are reported to have fled by crossing the border with Poland. 

This refugee situation arising out of the conflict in Ukraine has been termed as one of the largest exoduses in Europe since 1945. The other period of large population movement after the war was displacement in Central Europe between 1944-1948, and when Yugoslavia collapsed in 1991-1995. Previous conflict between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea also led to displacement of over  half a million people and it is estimated that nearly 200,000 people had left Russia before the end of 2014.[iii]  Before the Ukraine conflict began in 2021 it is estimated that 1.57 million Ukraine citizens already had authorization to stay in EU in 2021 and were the largest group of non-EU citizens after Morocco and Turkiye.[iv] Given the scale at which this crisis has unfolded, it becomes necessary to examine the following questions: what has been the nature of refugee flows and where are they going; what measures have been taken by the European countries and what does it portend for the future in terms of labour market needs? 

Nature of the Flows 

As soon as the Ukraine conflict began in February 2022, Ukraine imposed martial law in the country whereby it forbade men in the age group of  18 to 60 years to leave the country and this law has since been extended several times. [v]As a result, bulk of the movement out of Ukraine has been of women and children or of elderly above 60 years of age. According to the figures available of the countries covered in the Regional Refugee Response Plan[vi] of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), women and children constitute 86 per cent of the overall Ukraine refugee population. The proportion of children stands at 39 per cent while 9 per cent are older persons.[vii] This makes the refugee flows from Ukraine different from previous refugee flows in Europe. While previous flow of refugees consisted of men, the current flow comprises mainly of educated women and children. Secondly, cultural affinity and weaker language barriers make it easier for Ukrainian refugees to integrate in neighbouring countries. Thirdly, overall EU approach has been more accommodating towards Ukrainian Refugees as compared to other refugee population.[viii]

If one was to analyse the flow of refugees to countries in Europe, the countries that share a border with Europe or are in the immediate neighborhood were disproportionately affected as a result of the refugee movement, and hence form a part of the Regional Refugee Response Plan launched by UNHCR in early March 2022, which outlines a multi partner and multi sector response strategy to support host governments in their effort to support Ukrainian refugees.

Table 1: Refugees in Countries part of the Refugee Response Plan

(Source: UNHCR)[ix]

The Table 1 is indicative of the refugee movement in the countries in the aftermath of the conflict.  Polish border has seen the highest number of border crossings, however not all refugees have chosen to stay in Poland. Czech Republic which does not share an external border with Ukraine also hosts a large number of Ukrainian refugees even though counting new arrivals in Czech Republic is a difficult task. This may be the result of presence of Ukrainian diaspora in the Czech Republic and the support being made available to refugees in the country. Moldova which is not an EU Member State has the highest concentration of refugees in Europe and due to the burden on their system caused by the crisis, has solicited EU support. 

Table 2 below consists of other European Countries not part of the Refugee Response Plan providing support to Ukrainian refugees. Among them, Germany has accommodated the highest number of Ukrainian refugees. U.K, Spain, Italy and Ireland are other notable contributors.

Table 2: Other European Countries Receiving Refugees:

(Source: UNHCR)[x]

Policy Responses 

In the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, the policy responses have been very swift in Europe by the European Union and its Member States, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The EU invoked, for the first time its Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) to provide protection and access to work to Ukrainian Refugees. The Temporary Protection Directive[xi] allows individuals fleeing Ukraine the right to live and work in EU States for upto three years without applying for asylum.[xii] 4.7 million Ukrainians are currently registered under the EU’s temporary protection directive.[xiii]Ukrainian refugees have residency rights, access to the labour market, access to housing, social welfare assistance, medical assistance and for unaccompanied children and teenagers, it provides for legal guardianship and access to education.  It also provides for harmonized rights across the EU. The temporary protection was initially granted for one year and has been extended till March 2024.Depending on the situation in Ukraine it is proposed to be extended till March 2025. 

The three main EU countries hosting Ukrainian refugees under TPD are Germany (1,133,420 or 28% of the total), Poland (977740 or 24% of the total) and Czech Republic (349,140 or 9% of the total). While Germany has witnessed an increase in the number of those registered under this directive, Poland and Italy have witnessed a decrease in number.[xiv]

An OECD assessment of the Ukrainian refugees indicate that out of those registered under TPD, most of the adults are female with high levels of education and were employed prior to the conflict. The TPD activated by EU allows almost immediate access to employment opportunities to Ukrainian refugees.  The labour market integration of Ukrainian refugees is higher as compared to other refugee groups and the share of working age Ukrainian refugee population in employment is estimated to be over 40% in Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, U.K, Poland and Czech Republic. However, since Ukrainian refugees are qualified, there are ongoing efforts by many European countries to look at issues of skill transfer, recognition of foreign qualification, easing of access to regulated professions such as healthcare.[xv] For instance, the recent immigration reforms in Germany also looked at the question of integrating those already present in the country including asylum seekers in the labour market given the labour shortages experienced by Germany. 

However, an important issue to highlight here is that most of those seeking employment in Europe are women, especially mothers who have left Ukraine with child care responsibilities. Hence their employment in labour market may be concentrated on those work opportunities that allows them to balance their family priorities or part time employment opportunities. Another factor worth noting is that the Ukrainian refugees are also favorably placed in Europe due to current labour market shortages being faced by the region and the unemployment rate being low in many countries. Hospitality, agriculture, manufacturing, whole sale, retail trade as well as education sector are areas where Ukrainian refugees have found employment. Estonia, Poland, Portugal, Germany have set up online portals to connect Ukrainian refugees with potential employers.[xvi] The EU talent pool which is an online portal that matches prospective third country nationals with potential opportunities in EU is also currently being piloted on Ukrainian refugees before it is opened to other countries outside Europe. Certain EU countries are also helping Ukrainians with job training, language education which may help them earn more in the long run.[xvii] Ukrainians have also benefitted from a large presence of Ukrainian diaspora beforehand. 

As far as the fiscal impact of the refugee crisis is concerned, short term fiscal impact is estimated to be between Euros 30-37 billion. An OECD study claimed that the average cost of processing an individual’s asylum claim and application is Euro 10,000 per application.[xviii] As a result, financial constraints may guide European countries to finding more practical ways to cushion the strain the on the resources. 

Conclusion 

The foregoing analysis indicates that there have been large scale refugee movement that have arisen out of Ukraine conflict. However, Europe has responded with more solidarity to the Ukrainian question as compared to other refugee movements. Countries which are not pro-immigration have also accepted refugees in the case of Ukraine such as Poland and Hungary. In the absence of a clearly defined timeline to the question of return of these refugees, in the short and medium term, these refugees are going to stay in Europe. Perhaps it is this realization that is driving Europe among other factors to actively integrate refugees in their labour market through active policy measures. It is too early to predict how it will shape the European labour market  since the conflict is ongoing at the time of writing this article, there will be a definite push to integrate the existing refugees in the European labour market if the current trends are any indication to go by. Sustaining refugees through solidarity mechanisms in the long run may not be sustainable and create immense burden on the resources of the state hosting them. Some scholars argue that refugee fatigue may also set in if this conflict goes on and the inflow of refugees increases. Hence allowing these Ukrainian refugees an opportunity to work would allow them to pay for housing, health, education and other basic services. 

In the long run, women and children who constitute the bulk of the refugee flows and who have been separated from their families may want to return to Ukraine or be reunited with families. Further, countries may react differently to this inflow of Ukrainian refugees. It is also to be reiterated that Europe as a region is going through a phase of demographic decline and this temporary infusion of refugees may help it tide over short term issues of worker shortages, however whether or not it is a long-term solution will depend on how long this conflict lasts.

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*Dr. Surabhi Singh, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. She heads the Centre for Migration, Mobility and Diaspora Studies.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

End Notes

[i] UNHCR (2023), “Ukraine Refugee Situation”, Accessed on 9 September 2023, URL:https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

[ii] UNHCR (2023) ,”Country- Ukraine” , Accessed on 8 September 2023,  URL: https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/ukr

[iii]  Reliefweb (2023), “The Ukrainian Refugee Crisis: Providing Important Historical Context for the Current Situation”, Accessed on 7 September, URL: https://reliefweb.int/report/poland/ukrainian-refugee-crisis-providing-important-historical-context-current-situation

[iv]Eurostat (2023) , „Ukrainian citizens in the EU“, Accessed on 7 September 2023, URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Ukrainian_citizens_in_the_EU

[v] The martial law has been extended for the eight time on 17 August 2023 and will be in operation till 15 November 2023.

[vi] Refugee Response Plans (RRPs) is a UNHCR-led, comprehensive inter-agency plans for responding to refugee emergencies. The aim of the Refugee Response Plan has been to provide emergency relief, cash assistance, and mental health and support. Countries part of the Ukraine Refugee Response Plan are Bulgaria,Czech Republic,Estonia, Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Slovakia

[vii] UNHCR (2023), “Regional refugee response plan), Accessed on 10 September 2023, URL: file:///C:/Users/hp/Downloads/2023%2002%2002%20Ukraine%20Situation%202023%20RRP%20Final.pdf

[viii] Nicolò Bird and David Amaglobeli (2022), “Policies to Address the Refugee Crisis in Europe Related to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine “,Accessed on 5 September 2023, URL: URL: file:///C:/Users/hp/Downloads/INSEA2022003.pdf

[ix] Op.cit UNHCR

[x] Op.cit UNHCR

[xi] “Temporary protection is a procedure provided only in the event of a mass influx or imminent mass influx of displaced persons from third countries who are unable to return to their country of origin. These people are granted immediate and temporary protection, particularly if there is also a risk that the asylum system will be unable to process the influx without adverse effects for its efficient operation, in the interests of the persons concerned and other persons requesting protection.” (Source: Eurostat)

[xii] Council for Foreign Relations (2022), Accessed on 5 September 2023, URL:The Russia-Ukraine War: How Bad Is the Humanitarian Crisis? (cfr.org)

[xiii] Eurostat (2023),“ 30 June 2023: 4.07 million with temporary protection”, Accessed on 10 September 2023,  URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20230809-1

[xiv] ibid

[xv] OECD (2022), URL: https://www.oecd.org/ukraine-hub/policy-responses/what-we-know-about-the-skills-and-early-labour-market-outcomes-of-refugees-from-ukraine-c7e694aa/

[xvi] ibid

[xvii] Op.cit Bird and Amaglobeli

[xviii] OECD (2017), URL: https://www.oecd.org/els/mig/migration-policy-debates-13.pdf