Indian Council of World Affairs

Introduction 

On 12 September 2023, reports came in that Kim Jong-un was on his way to visit Russia travelling in his heavily armoured private train at an average speed of 60 kms per hour or 37 miles per hour. The secrecy surrounding Kim Jong-un’s itinerary had led to speculations regarding the duration, destination and purpose of his visit to Russia.[i] Initial reports suggested that Kim Jong-un would possibly meet with President Vladimir Putin during the Eastern Economic Forum being held at Vladivostok from 10-13 September 2023.[ii] However, it was on 17 September 2023 that Kim Jong-un completed his six days tour of Russia and the Summit between President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un took place on 13 September 2023 at Vostochny Cosmodrome situated in the forests of Russia’s far eastern region.[iii] This was Kim Jong-un’s first overseas trip ever since the country opened up from the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown, and his last foreign visit was to Vladivostok, Russia in 2019.[iv]

Purpose of Kim Jong-un's September 2023 visit to Russia 

The purpose of Kim Jong-un’s visit had been a subject of speculation. The visit came at a time when Russia is in the midst of the Ukraine conflict and North Korea has been under UN sanctions due to its nuclear testing and missile activities since 2006.[v] The major outcome of this visit is the deepening of relationship between North Korea and Russia. Kim Jong-un in his talks with Vladimir Putin underscored the further strengthening of “strategic and tactical cooperation between the two countries and extending strong support and solidarity with each other on the common front to frustrate the imperialists' military threat and provocation”.[vi]

The visit along with the meeting between the two leaders took place in the backdrop of initial contacts at Defence Minister level and North Korea’s own missile and nuclear ambitions. 

On 25 July 2023, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had arrived with a military delegation in Pyongyang, which was the first ever visit by a Defence Minister of Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Shoigu’s visit was considered as an inspection of the North Korean artillery shells and other munitions since Russia’s ammunition stocks have been heavily depleted.[vii]

On 24 August 2023, it was reported that North Korea’s second attempt at launching a spy satellite had failed again but the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA), North Korea’s space agency announced that it would make another attempt in October after studying the relevant causes of the recent accident.[viii]

On 6 September 2023, North Korea had also launched, what is being claimed by the North Korean media, as its “first tactical nuclear attack submarine”.[ix] It was officially named as “Hero Kim Kun Ok”, and launched from the Shinpo shipyard located on the east coast of the country.[x] It is stated to be originally a Soviet-era Romeo-class diesel-electric attack submarine dating back to the 1950s. The "Hero Kim Kun Ok" submarine which has been designated with hull number 841, is the result of an extensive conversion process.[xi] Kim Jong-un has also reiterated his intentions to turn all the other existing medium-sized submarines into attack ones, capable of carrying tactical nukes, in addition to prospective plans for building nuclear submarines, as part of the line of strengthening their naval forces.[xii]

The recent visit is also being considered in the strategic circles as a response to the deepening engagements between South Korea, the United States (US) and Japan through the trilateral security cooperation. Correspondingly, there has also been strengthening and expansion of South Korea-NATO and Japan-NATO partnership through the Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP). As such, the North Korean state is seen as politically signalling to the West and its allies, that Pyongyang is also going forward with its deepening of relations. 

Prior to their Summit meeting Vladimir Putin had added that he would discuss “all issues” with Kim Jong-un, which meant it could include possible weapons exchange talks.[xiii] Furthermore, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had himself commented that even the West had breached contractual obligations by sending Soviet-era weaponry to Ukraine.[xiv]

Key Events During Kim Jong-un's Visit to Russia 

After crossing the border in his train on 12 September 2023, Kim Jong-un was welcomed by Russia’s Natural Resources and Environment Minister Alexander Kozlov at Khasan, Russia. Reports suggested that discussions were held regarding potential launch this year of joint tourism and agricultural projects in order to deepen economic ties.[xv]

It was on 13 September 2023, that the most awaited event of the visit occurred when Kim and Putin met after 2019, for their second bilateral Summit at the Vostochny Cosmodrome,[xvi] which is an eastern spaceport designed to reduce Moscow’s reliance on Kazakhstan’s Baikonur Cosmodrome.[xvii] With the decision of attempting another launch of their spy satellite in October 2023, this particular visit to the space facility, therefore, could be in line with Kim Jong-un’s wish to deploy a spy satellite with assistance from Moscow in exchange for supplying munitions to Russia.[xviii] While meeting Kim, Putin offered to send a North Korean to space, which would be a first,[xix] and also accepted the invitation to visit North Korea. 

After his meeting with Putin, the North Korean leader visited Komsomolsk-on-Amur, a city widely known for two aircraft plants which are the Yuri Gagarin Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant and the Yakovlev Plant.[xx] It is here that Kim Jong-un was reportedly inspecting the productions of modern fighter jets such as Su-35, Su-57 and an SSJ passenger plane.[xxi] With the US, South Korea and Japan alliance fortifying its defences against North Korea in all domains, the visit to the aircraft factories comes as another redefining moment for Kim Jong-un to signal Pyongyang’s intentions in bolstering air dominance. 

On 16 September 2023, the North Korean leader reached the port of Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East, where he was reported to have travelled via train till the city of Artyom[xxii] and then via flight to Knevichi airfield[xxiii] just outside Vladivostok. On his arrival at the airfield he inspected state of the art models for operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces.[xxiv] At the Knevichi airfield, Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu showcased the Russian MiG-31l missile carrier with the latest weaponry, the Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched missile, to Kim Jong-un.[xxv] The North Korean leader was also shown the new Russian Tu-214 long-range aircraft, designed to carry passengers and equipped with modern, highly economical Russian-made engines.[xxvi]

Therafter, at the Vladivostok port he was given a tour of the Pacific Fleet frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov.[xxvii] It was reported that the missile and artillery systems of the frigate, which included long-range Kalibr cruise missiles were demonstrated to the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.[xxviii] The focus on naval capabilities are primarily driven by Kim’s own ambitions of securing North Korea’s maritime domain as the open seas leave it vulnerable. Additionally, during the launching of the tactical attack submarine on 6 September 2023, Kim Jong-un had declared his intentions of strengthening his country’s naval capabilities. There could also be possible joint training exercises with the Russian navy in the pipeline. 

At the conclusion of his visit, before departing in his train, Kim Jong-un was reportedly gifted five explosive drones, a reconnaissance drone, and a bulletproof vest from the Governor of the Primorsky region bordering China and North Korea.[xxix] The Kremlin had stated that there were no agreements signed regarding arms transfer. 

Analysis of Political Implications of the Visit 

The political implications of the visit was not lost to the international community particularly South Korea, Japan and the US. 

The US had warned that any military cooperation between North Korea and Russia would be a violation of UN sanctions. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had early on stated that any arms deal would mean that North Korea will “pay a price”.[xxx] The US also observed that the meeting between Kim and Putin suggests how the international sanctions had depleted Moscow’s defence stock leading it to look at North Korea either as a conduit or as a source of weapon for Russia.[xxxi] There is no official confirmation of arms transfer but it is expected that the US will impose additional heavy sanctions upon North Korea and Russia in case of any circumstantial evidence that could be obtained in the near future from the conflict in Ukraine or in the Korean Peninsula. 

South Korea had also warned against any military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.[xxxii] In fact, South Korea faces the major brunt of North Korea’s actions. Seoul has been sending non-lethal military supplies to Kyiv perhaps as a measure of contingency, if a similar situation were to arise in the Korean peninsula.[xxxiii] On the other hand, this makes Seoul even more vulnerable as it is antagonising Russia, which is fortifying relations with North Korea. Therefore, South Korea has been in a Catch-22 situation. President Yoon stated that any military cooperation between North Korea and Russia is “illegal and unjust as it contravenes U.N. Security Council resolutions and various other international sanctions.”[xxxiv]

Japan’s new Defense Minister Minoru Kihara stated that the trilateral security cooperation between Japan, South Korea and the US is “the cornerstone” of Tokyo’s response to an increasingly tense regional environment that includes North Korea and Russia.[xxxv] Japan has also been vulnerable as North Korea’s missile test launches often land in the Sea of Japan, even crossing over the air space of Japan as it did on 3^rd October 2022.[xxxvi] Consequently, Japan has been emphasising on utilising its counterstrike capabilities in the opponent’s territory to deter any missile attacks.[xxxvii]

Conclusion 

Kim Jong-un and President Vladimir Putin have kept the door open for another meeting, possibly in Pyongyang[xxxviii] as Kim invited Putin for a reciprocal visit to North Korea.[xxxix] It is too early to tell whether or not there will be any form of technology, arms and ammunition transfer between the two countries in defiance of international sanctions. The primary issue being whether Russia will be willing to share its advanced military hi-technology in exchange of stockpiles of artillery shells from North Korea. North Korea which needs almost everything will have attempted to assure Russia of its ammunition production capabilities. In fact, North Korea would try to persuade Russia to assist in upgradation of Pyongyang’s military production facilities as well. 

At the moment, North Korea is becoming a factor in the larger power equation between Russia and the West. With such open display of camaraderie, North Korea is being projected by Russia as another avenue of strategic vulnerability for the West amidst the conflict in Ukraine. North Korea may perhaps see itself as a central player in the conflict impacting Europe but ultimately the developing nature of the current geopolitics may unfold similar to the Korean War of the 1950s during the peak of the Cold War, with belligerents such as Russia and China on the Northern side, whereas the US and its allies on the Southern side.

*****

*Dr Tunchinmang Langel, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal

Endnotes

[i] Anton Sokolin, 2023, “Kim Jong Un’s train speeds past Vladivostok en route to presumed Putin summit”, NK News, September 12, 2023, https://www.nknews.org/2023/09/kim-jong-uns-train-speeds-past-vladivostok-en-route-to-presumed-putin-summit/ (Accessed 13 September 2023)

[ii] Justin McCurry and Andrew Roth, 2023, “Kim Jong-un arrives in Russia to meet Putin as US threatens sanctions”, The Guardian, September 12, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/12/kim-jong-un-arrives-russia-vladivostok-vladimir-putin-meeting (Accessed 13 September 2023)

[iii] Justin McCurry and Andrew Roth, 2023, “Kim Jong-un offers Putin ‘full support’ in Russia’s ‘sacred fight’ with west “, The Guardian¸ 13 September 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/13/kim-jong-un-putin-weapons-talk-russian-space-base-amur (Accessed 14 September 2023)

[iv] Helen Regan, Gawon Bae, Jake Kwon, Jessie Yeung, Brad Lendon and Rob Picheta, 2023, “Armored train carrying North Korea’s Kim Jong Un crosses into Russia ahead of Putin meeting”, CNN, September 13, 2023,  https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/11/asia/kim-jong-un-north-korea-russia-meeting-intl-hnk/index.html (Accessed 14 September 2023)

[v] Arms Control Association, 2022, “UN Security Council Resolutions on North Korea”, January 2022, https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/UN-Security-Council-Resolutions-on-North-Korea (Accessed 14 September 2023)

[vi] KCNA.kp, 2023, “Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Has Talks with Russian President”, September 14, 2023, http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/12825c828f2c19519cdc394bec9a51d9.kcmsf (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[vii] Nathan Hodge, 2023, “Putin and Kim meet in Russia, but what are the main takeaways?”, CNN, September 14, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/14/asia/kim-putin-north-korea-russia-takeaways-intl-hnk/index.html (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[viii] Hyung-Jin Kim, 2023, “North Korea says its 2nd attempt to launch a spy satellite has failed, vows 3rd try”, AP News, August 24, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-rocket-launch-satellite-d9d686ca04466c3069ed2f07b2cd70d1 (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[ix] KCNA.kp, 2023, “Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Makes Congratulatory Speech at Ceremony for Launching Newly-Built Submarine”, September 8, 2023, http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/a244151196662609d466a37d1f9ce288.kcmsf (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[x] Navy Recognition, 2023, “North Korea unveils new submarine Hero Kim Kun Ok”, September 8, 2023, https://navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2023/september/13552-north-korea-unveils-new-submarine-hero-kim-kun-ok.html (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xi] Navy Recognition, 2023, “North Korea unveils new submarine Hero Kim Kun Ok”, September 8, 2023, https://navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2023/september/13552-north-korea-unveils-new-submarine-hero-kim-kun-ok.html (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xii] KCNA.kp, 2023, “Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Makes Congratulatory Speech at Ceremony for Launching Newly-Built Submarine”, September 8, 2023, http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/a244151196662609d466a37d1f9ce288.kcmsf (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xiii] Al-Jazeera, 2023, “Talks between North Korea’s Kim and Putin end in Russia: What did they say?”, September 13, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/putin-kim-share-warm-welcomes-in-during-second-meeting-in-four-years (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xiv] Reuters, 2023, “Russia's Lavrov says situation has changed since North Korea was hit by U.N. sanctions”, September 13, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-lavrov-says-situation-has-changed-since-north-korea-was-hit-by-un-2023-09-13/ (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xv] Kim Jaewon, 2023, “North Korea's Kim Jong Un enters Russia for summit with Putin”, Nikkei Asia, September 12, 2023, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/North-Korea-s-Kim-Jong-Un-enters-Russia-for-summit-with-Putin (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xvi] Justin McCurry and Andrew Roth, 2023, “Kim Jong-un offers Putin ‘full support’ in Russia’s ‘sacred fight’ with west “, The Guardian¸ 13 September 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/13/kim-jong-un-putin-weapons-talk-russian-space-base-amur (Accessed 14 September 2023)

[xvii] Ankit Panda, 2023, “What Putin and Kim Want From Each Other”, Foreign Policy, September 15, 2023,  https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/15/russia-north-korea-putin-kim-summit-diplomacy-weapons-missiles-space-cooperation-sanctions/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921 (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xviii] Jon Herskovitz and Sangmi Cha, 2023, “North Korea says Putin may visit Pyongyang after ‘Epoch-Making’ Talks with Kim in Russia”, Foreign Policy, September 14, 2023, https://time.com/6313947/kim-invite-putin-visit-north-korea/ (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xix] Times of Israel, 2023, “North Korea’s leader wraps up Russia trip with drones gift”, September 17, 2023, https://www.timesofisrael.com/north-koreas-leader-wraps-up-russia-trip-with-drones-gift/ (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xx] The Korea Times, 2023, “N. Korea's Kim inspects modern fighter jets at factory in Russia's Far East”, September 15, 2023, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/09/103_359263.html (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xxi] The Korea Times, 2023, “N. Korea's Kim inspects modern fighter jets at factory in Russia's Far East”, September 15, 2023, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/09/103_359263.html (Accessed 15 September 2023)

[xxii] Kim Tong-Hyung and Hyung-Jin Kim, 2023, “North Korea’s Kim Jong Un inspects Russian bombers and a warship on a visit to Russia’s Far East”, AP News, September 17, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-kim-jong-un-putin-vladivostok-0255d844b06e11c39920cc2acdb53406 (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxiii] Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 2023, “North Korean leader Kim Jong-un arrives at Knevichi airfield”, September 16, 2023, https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12479028[at]egnews (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxiv] Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 2023, “DPRK leader observes modern combat aircraft at Knevichi airfield”, September 16, 2023, https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12479032[at]egnews (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxv] Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 2023, “Kinzhal hypersonic missile system presented to North Korean leader”, September 16, 2023, https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12479034[at]egnews (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxvi] Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 2023, “North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gets a close look at new Tu-214 aircraft”, https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12479036[at]egnews (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxvii] Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, 2023, “Kim Jong-un and Sergei Shoigu arrive at Pacific Fleet frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov in Vladivostok”, September 16, 2023, https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12479039[at]egnews (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxviii] Kim Tong-Hyung and Hyung-Jin Kim, 2023, “North Korea’s Kim Jong Un inspects Russian bombers and a warship on a visit to Russia’s Far East”, AP News, September 17, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-kim-jong-un-putin-vladivostok-0255d844b06e11c39920cc2acdb53406 (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxix] Times of Israel, 2023, “North Korea’s leader wraps up Russia trip with drones gift”, September 17, 2023, https://www.timesofisrael.com/north-koreas-leader-wraps-up-russia-trip-with-drones-gift/ (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxx] Jessie Yeung, 2023, “US warns North Korea would ‘pay a price’ for any arms deal with Russia”, CNN, September 5, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/05/asia/us-warns-north-korea-russia-weapons-intl-hnk/index.html (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxxi] Jessie Yeung, 2023, “US warns North Korea would ‘pay a price’ for any arms deal with Russia”, CNN, September 5, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/05/asia/us-warns-north-korea-russia-weapons-intl-hnk/index.html (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxxii] The Korea Times, 2023, “Seoul warns against military cooperation between N. Korea, Russia”, September 15, 2023, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/09/103_359259.html (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxxiii] Joyce Lee and Olena Harmash, 2023, “South Korea's Yoon pledges more military supplies, aid to Ukraine”, Reuters, July 16, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-president-yoon-makes-surprise-visit-ukraine-yonhap-2023-07-15/ (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxxiv] The Korea Times, 2023, “Yoon departs for New York to attend UN General Assembly”, September 18, 2023, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/09/120_359402.html (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxxv] Jesse Johnson, 2023, “New Japan defense chief 'very concerned' about Chinese military moves”, The Japan Times, September 17, 2023, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/09/17/japan/politics/japan-defense-minister-minoru-kihara-china/ (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxxvi] Jesse Johnson and Kanako Takahara, “North Korea fires ballistic missile over Japan for first time since 2017,” The Japan Times, 4 October 2022, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/04/national/north-korea-appears-launch-ballistic-missile-japan/, Accessed on 18 September 2023

[xxxvii] Ministry of Defense of Japan, 2023, “Defense of Japan 2023”, August 2023, https://www.mod.go.jp/en/publ/w_paper/wp2023/DOJ2023_Digest_EN.pdf (Accessed 14 September 2023)

[xxxviii] Lee Hyo-jin, 2023, “Kim-Putin summit signals 'new normal' of N. Korea-Russia relations”, The Korea Times, September 14, 2023,  https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/09/113_359235.html (Accessed 18 September 2023)

[xxxix] Jon Herskovitz and Sangmi Cha, 2023, “North Korea says Putin may visit Pyongyang after ‘Epoch-Making’ Talks with Kim in Russia”, Foreign Policy, September 14, 2023, https://time.com/6313947/kim-invite-putin-visit-north-korea/ (Accessed 15 September 2023)